Astrana Health Stock Price Prediction
| ASTH Stock | 29.33 0.21 0.71% |
Momentum 36
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.53) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5766 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.2491 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.3578 | Wall Street Target Price 43.8889 |
Using Astrana Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Astrana Health from the perspective of Astrana Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Astrana Health using Astrana Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Astrana using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Astrana Health's stock price.
Astrana Health Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Astrana Health's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Astrana. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Astrana Health stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 32.4271 | Short Percent 0.0556 | Short Ratio 5.33 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.5 M | 50 Day MA 24.8828 |
Astrana Health Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Astrana Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Astrana. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Astrana can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Astrana Health. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Astrana Health's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Astrana Health.
Astrana Health Implied Volatility | 0.74 |
Astrana Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Astrana Health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Astrana Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Astrana Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Astrana Health's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Astrana Health to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Astrana because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Astrana Health after-hype prediction price | USD 29.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Astrana contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Astrana Health will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0463% per day over the life of the 2025-11-21 option contract. With Astrana Health trading at USD 29.33, that is roughly USD 0.0136 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Astrana Health's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Astrana Health options at the current volatility level of 0.74%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Astrana Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astrana Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Astrana Health After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Astrana Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Astrana Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Astrana Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Astrana Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Astrana Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Astrana Health's historical news coverage. Astrana Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.41 and 34.29, respectively. We have considered Astrana Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Astrana Health is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Astrana Health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Astrana Health Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Astrana Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Astrana Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Astrana Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 4.94 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
29.33 | 29.35 | 0.07 |
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Astrana Health Hype Timeline
Astrana Health is presently traded for 29.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Astrana is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 29.35 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Astrana Health is about 1580.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.25. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.03 B. Net Income was 49.93 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 273.27 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Astrana Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Astrana Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Astrana Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Astrana Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Astrana Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Astrana Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INFY | Infosys Ltd ADR | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.93 | (2.22) | 6.55 | |
| UBER | Uber Technologies | (3.40) | 6 per month | 1.65 | (0.01) | 3.26 | (3.36) | 11.37 | |
| ADI | Analog Devices | 0.01 | 8 per month | 1.37 | 0.01 | 2.49 | (2.80) | 6.21 | |
| GETY | Getty Images Holdings | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.32 | (6.21) | 18.75 | |
| PINS | (0.66) | 8 per month | 2.03 | 0.04 | 3.47 | (2.18) | 15.43 | ||
| TER | Teradyne | 0.67 | 10 per month | 1.52 | 0.13 | 6.18 | (2.94) | 21.93 | |
| NTSGF | National Storage REIT | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 35.95 | |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 0.97 | 7 per month | 1.41 | 0.26 | 3.38 | (2.95) | 11.43 |
Astrana Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Astrana price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Astrana using various technical indicators. When you analyze Astrana charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Astrana Health Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Astrana Health stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Astrana Health, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Astrana Health based on analysis of Astrana Health hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Astrana Health's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Astrana Health's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0105 | 0.0343 | 0.002684 | 0.00255 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.16 | 1.31 | 0.74 | 1.24 |
Story Coverage note for Astrana Health
The number of cover stories for Astrana Health depends on current market conditions and Astrana Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Astrana Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Astrana Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Astrana Health Short Properties
Astrana Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Astrana Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Astrana Health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Astrana Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astrana Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 290.8 M |
Complementary Tools for Astrana Stock analysis
When running Astrana Health's price analysis, check to measure Astrana Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astrana Health is operating at the current time. Most of Astrana Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astrana Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astrana Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astrana Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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