NATIONAL FUEL GAS Odds of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 99.30
| 636180BM2 | 99.91 0.11 0.11% |
NATIONAL |
NATIONAL Target Price Odds to finish below 99.30
The tendency of NATIONAL Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 99.30 or more in 90 days |
| 99.91 | 90 days | 99.30 | about 10.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NATIONAL to drop to 99.30 or more in 90 days from now is about 10.38 (This NATIONAL FUEL GAS probability density function shows the probability of NATIONAL Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NATIONAL FUEL GAS price to stay between 99.30 and its current price of 99.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.14 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NATIONAL FUEL GAS has a beta of -0.26. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NATIONAL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NATIONAL FUEL GAS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NATIONAL FUEL GAS has an alpha of 0.0289, implying that it can generate a 0.0289 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NATIONAL Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for NATIONAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NATIONAL FUEL GAS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NATIONAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NATIONAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NATIONAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NATIONAL FUEL GAS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NATIONAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
NATIONAL Technical Analysis
NATIONAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NATIONAL Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NATIONAL FUEL GAS. In general, you should focus on analyzing NATIONAL Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NATIONAL Predictive Forecast Models
NATIONAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many NATIONAL's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NATIONAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NATIONAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NATIONAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NATIONAL options trading.
Other Information on Investing in NATIONAL Bond
NATIONAL financial ratios help investors to determine whether NATIONAL Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NATIONAL with respect to the benefits of owning NATIONAL security.