NATIONAL FUEL GAS Volatility
| 636180BM2 | 99.91 0.11 0.11% |
NATIONAL FUEL GAS has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0055, which conveys that the bond had a -0.0055% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. NATIONAL exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify NATIONAL's mean deviation of 0.3572, and Downside Deviation of 0.672 to check out the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to NATIONAL's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Default | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
NATIONAL Bond volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of NATIONAL daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use NATIONAL's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of NATIONAL volatility.
NATIONAL |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game with NATIONAL. They may decide to buy additional shares of NATIONAL at lower prices to lower the average cost per share, thereby improving their portfolio's performance when markets normalize.
Moving against NATIONAL Bond
| 0.42 | ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | COIN | Coinbase Global Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.35 | LH | Laboratory | PairCorr |
| 0.32 | ENSC | Ensysce Biosciences | PairCorr |
| 0.31 | BITX | Volatility Shares Trust Trending | PairCorr |
NATIONAL Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
NATIONAL's beta coefficient measures the volatility of NATIONAL bond compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents NATIONAL bond's returns against your selected market. In other words, NATIONAL's beta of -0.26 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk NATIONAL bond can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. NATIONAL FUEL GAS exhibits relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.02 and kurtosis of 15.2. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure NATIONAL's bond risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact NATIONAL's bond price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze NATIONAL FUEL GAS Demand TrendCheck current 90 days NATIONAL correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)NATIONAL Beta |
NATIONAL standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 0.25 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by NATIONAL's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of NATIONAL's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in national bond tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in NATIONAL.
NATIONAL FUEL GAS Bond Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which NATIONAL bond price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with NATIONAL's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of NATIONAL's bond to predict their future moves. A bond that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A bond with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile bond is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of NATIONAL's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of bond volatility measures NATIONAL's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict NATIONAL's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the bond.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for NATIONAL's current market price. This means that the bond will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on NATIONAL's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. NATIONAL FUEL GAS Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
NATIONAL Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NATIONAL FUEL GAS has a beta of -0.2641 . This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NATIONAL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NATIONAL FUEL GAS is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to NATIONAL or Gas sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that NATIONAL's price will be affected by overall bond market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a NATIONAL bond's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
NATIONAL FUEL GAS has an alpha of 0.0289, implying that it can generate a 0.0289 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a NATIONAL Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a bond's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.NATIONAL Bond Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of NATIONAL is -18335.83. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 0.06 and standard deviation of 0.25. The mean deviation of NATIONAL FUEL GAS is currently at 0.2. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.76
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
NATIONAL Bond Return Volatility
NATIONAL historical daily return volatility represents how much of NATIONAL bond's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. NATIONAL FUEL GAS accepts 0.25% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7589% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About NATIONAL Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of NATIONAL or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of NATIONAL may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to NATIONAL's beta indicator, it measures the risk of NATIONAL and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of NATIONAL fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.3 ways to utilize NATIONAL's volatility to invest better
Higher NATIONAL's bond volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of NATIONAL FUEL GAS bond is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. NATIONAL FUEL GAS bond volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of NATIONAL FUEL GAS investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in NATIONAL's bond can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of NATIONAL's bond relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
NATIONAL Investment Opportunity
Dow Jones Industrial has a standard deviation of returns of 0.76 and is 3.04 times more volatile than NATIONAL FUEL GAS. 2 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than NATIONAL. You can use NATIONAL FUEL GAS to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The bond experiences a normal upward fluctuation. Check odds of NATIONAL to be traded at 104.91 in 90 days.Very good diversification
The correlation between NATIONAL FUEL GAS and DJI is -0.29 (i.e., Very good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding NATIONAL FUEL GAS and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
NATIONAL Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of NATIONAL's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NATIONAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of NATIONAL bond's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.0003) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0453 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.3572 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6429 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 0.672 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 101483.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6906 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential bonds, we recommend comparing similar bonds with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
NATIONAL Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against NATIONAL as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. NATIONAL's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, NATIONAL's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to NATIONAL FUEL GAS.
Other Information on Investing in NATIONAL Bond
NATIONAL financial ratios help investors to determine whether NATIONAL Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NATIONAL with respect to the benefits of owning NATIONAL security.