TFS FINANCIAL (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.56
| PWT Stock | EUR 12.50 0.20 1.57% |
TFS |
TFS FINANCIAL Target Price Odds to finish below 10.56
The tendency of TFS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 10.56 or more in 90 days |
| 12.50 | 90 days | 10.56 | roughly 2.53 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TFS FINANCIAL to drop to € 10.56 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.53 (This TFS FINANCIAL probability density function shows the probability of TFS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TFS FINANCIAL price to stay between € 10.56 and its current price of €12.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.69 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, TFS FINANCIAL will likely underperform. Additionally TFS FINANCIAL has an alpha of 0.0541, implying that it can generate a 0.0541 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TFS FINANCIAL Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for TFS FINANCIAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TFS FINANCIAL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TFS FINANCIAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TFS FINANCIAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TFS FINANCIAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TFS FINANCIAL, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TFS FINANCIAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
TFS FINANCIAL Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TFS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TFS FINANCIAL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TFS FINANCIAL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 280.6 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 58.3 M |
TFS FINANCIAL Technical Analysis
TFS FINANCIAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TFS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TFS FINANCIAL. In general, you should focus on analyzing TFS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TFS FINANCIAL Predictive Forecast Models
TFS FINANCIAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many TFS FINANCIAL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TFS FINANCIAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards TFS FINANCIAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, TFS FINANCIAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from TFS FINANCIAL options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in TFS Stock
When determining whether TFS FINANCIAL is a strong investment it is important to analyze TFS FINANCIAL's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact TFS FINANCIAL's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding TFS Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out TFS FINANCIAL Backtesting, TFS FINANCIAL Valuation, TFS FINANCIAL Correlation, TFS FINANCIAL Hype Analysis, TFS FINANCIAL Volatility, TFS FINANCIAL History as well as TFS FINANCIAL Performance. For information on how to trade TFS Stock refer to our How to Trade TFS Stock guide.You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.