Orange County Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 53.27
| OBT Stock | USD 57.04 1.46 2.50% |
Orange |
Orange County Target Price Odds to finish over 53.27
The tendency of Orange Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 53.27 in 90 days |
| 57.04 | 90 days | 53.27 | about 65.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Orange County to stay above $ 53.27 in 90 days from now is about 65.46 (This Orange County Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Orange Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Orange County Bancorp price to stay between $ 53.27 and its current price of $57.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.15 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.1 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Orange County will likely underperform. Additionally Orange County Bancorp has an alpha of 0.1732, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Orange County Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Orange County
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Orange County Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Orange County's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Orange County Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Orange County is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Orange County's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Orange County Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Orange County within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Orange County Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Orange County for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Orange County Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Orange County had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Orange County has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 16th of September 2024 Orange County paid $ 0.23 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Orange County Bancorp Inc Stock Price Down 3.4 percent on Sep 23 |
Orange County Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Orange Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Orange County's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Orange County's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -147.4 M |
Orange County Technical Analysis
Orange County's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Orange Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Orange County Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Orange Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Orange County Predictive Forecast Models
Orange County's time-series forecasting models is one of many Orange County's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Orange County's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Orange County Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Orange County for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Orange County Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Orange County had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Orange County has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 16th of September 2024 Orange County paid $ 0.23 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Orange County Bancorp Inc Stock Price Down 3.4 percent on Sep 23 |
Additional Tools for Orange Stock Analysis
When running Orange County's price analysis, check to measure Orange County's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Orange County is operating at the current time. Most of Orange County's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Orange County's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Orange County's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Orange County to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.