First Solar Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 193.93
| FSLR Stock | USD 182.13 0.13 0.07% |
Closest to current price First long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
First |
First Solar Target Price Odds to finish over 193.93
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 193.93 or more in 90 days |
| 182.13 | 90 days | 193.93 | about 92.33 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Solar to move over $ 193.93 or more in 90 days from now is about 92.33 (This First Solar probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Solar price to stay between its current price of $ 182.13 and $ 193.93 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.81 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days First Solar has a beta of 0.61. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Solar average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Solar will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Solar has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. First Solar Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Solar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Solar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Solar Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Solar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Solar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Solar, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Solar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 18.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
First Solar Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Solar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Solar can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Solar generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| First Solar has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| First Solar has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from oilprice.com: The Unintended Consequences of Pakistans Solar Energy Boom |
First Solar Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Solar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Solar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
First Solar Technical Analysis
First Solar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Solar. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Solar Predictive Forecast Models
First Solar's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Solar's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Solar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Solar
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Solar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Solar help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Solar generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| First Solar has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| First Solar has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from oilprice.com: The Unintended Consequences of Pakistans Solar Energy Boom |
Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Solar's price analysis, check to measure First Solar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Solar is operating at the current time. Most of First Solar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Solar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Solar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Solar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.