Cogna Educacao Sa Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 0.26
| COGNY Stock | USD 0.26 0.02 7.14% |
Cogna |
Cogna Educacao Target Price Odds to finish over 0.26
The tendency of Cogna Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 0.26 | 90 days | 0.26 | about 68.72 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cogna Educacao to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 68.72 (This Cogna Educacao SA probability density function shows the probability of Cogna Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the pink sheet has the beta coefficient of 1.89 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Cogna Educacao will likely underperform. Additionally Cogna Educacao SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cogna Educacao Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Cogna Educacao
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogna Educacao SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cogna Educacao's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cogna Educacao Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cogna Educacao is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cogna Educacao's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cogna Educacao SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cogna Educacao within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.89 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Cogna Educacao Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cogna Educacao for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cogna Educacao SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cogna Educacao SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cogna Educacao SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Cogna Educacao SA has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Cogna Educacao SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 4.78 B. Net Loss for the year was (489.12 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.87 B. |
Cogna Educacao Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cogna Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cogna Educacao's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogna Educacao's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
Cogna Educacao Technical Analysis
Cogna Educacao's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cogna Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cogna Educacao SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cogna Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cogna Educacao Predictive Forecast Models
Cogna Educacao's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cogna Educacao's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cogna Educacao's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cogna Educacao SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cogna Educacao for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cogna Educacao SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cogna Educacao SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cogna Educacao SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Cogna Educacao SA has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Cogna Educacao SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 4.78 B. Net Loss for the year was (489.12 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.87 B. |
Additional Tools for Cogna Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Cogna Educacao's price analysis, check to measure Cogna Educacao's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cogna Educacao is operating at the current time. Most of Cogna Educacao's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cogna Educacao's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cogna Educacao's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cogna Educacao to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.