VTC Telecommunicatio Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VTC Stock   7,700  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of VTC Telecommunications JSC on the next trading day is expected to be 7,975 with a mean absolute deviation of 221.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13,490. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast VTC Telecommunicatio's stock prices and determine the direction of VTC Telecommunications JSC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VTC Telecommunicatio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.
  
A naive forecasting model for VTC Telecommunicatio is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of VTC Telecommunications JSC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

VTC Telecommunicatio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VTC Telecommunications JSC on the next trading day is expected to be 7,975 with a mean absolute deviation of 221.14, mean absolute percentage error of 83,773, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13,490.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VTC Telecommunicatio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

VTC Telecommunicatio Stock Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VTC Telecommunicatio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VTC Telecommunicatio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria129.4464
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation221.1436
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0271
SAESum of the absolute errors13489.759
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of VTC Telecommunications JSC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict VTC Telecommunicatio. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for VTC Telecommunicatio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VTC Telecommunications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

VTC Telecommunicatio Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VTC Telecommunicatio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VTC Telecommunicatio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VTC Telecommunicatio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

VTC Telecommunicatio Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VTC Telecommunicatio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VTC Telecommunicatio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VTC Telecommunicatio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VTC Telecommunications JSC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pair Trading with VTC Telecommunicatio

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if VTC Telecommunicatio position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in VTC Telecommunicatio will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to VTC Telecommunicatio could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace VTC Telecommunicatio when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back VTC Telecommunicatio - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling VTC Telecommunications JSC to buy it.
The correlation of VTC Telecommunicatio is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as VTC Telecommunicatio moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if VTC Telecommunications moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for VTC Telecommunicatio can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching