Sapiens International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SPNS Stock  USD 27.76  0.19  0.69%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sapiens International on the next trading day is expected to be 25.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.12. Sapiens Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Sapiens International's Payables Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 18.90 in 2024, despite the fact that Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to (25.77). . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 63.5 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 28.3 M in 2024.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Sapiens International's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1996-12-31
Previous Quarter
122.6 M
Current Value
146.2 M
Quarterly Volatility
46.4 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Sapiens International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Sapiens International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Sapiens International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sapiens International on the next trading day is expected to be 25.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 2.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sapiens Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sapiens International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sapiens International Stock Forecast Pattern

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Sapiens International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sapiens International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sapiens International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.94 and 29.20, respectively. We have considered Sapiens International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.76
25.57
Expected Value
29.20
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sapiens International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sapiens International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.1562
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1168
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0339
SAESum of the absolute errors68.1223
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Sapiens International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Sapiens International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Sapiens International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sapiens International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.1927.8231.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.3430.9734.60
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
28.5731.4034.85
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.370.370.37
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Sapiens International

For every potential investor in Sapiens, whether a beginner or expert, Sapiens International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sapiens Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sapiens. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sapiens International's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sapiens International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sapiens International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sapiens International's current price.

Sapiens International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sapiens International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sapiens International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sapiens International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sapiens International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sapiens International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sapiens International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sapiens International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sapiens stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Sapiens Stock Analysis

When running Sapiens International's price analysis, check to measure Sapiens International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sapiens International is operating at the current time. Most of Sapiens International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sapiens International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sapiens International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sapiens International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.