VanEck Retail Etf Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| RTH Etf | USD 265.52 1.78 0.67% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of VanEck Retail ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 258.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.36. VanEck Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VanEck Retail's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength momentum indicator of VanEck Retail's share price is below 20 indicating that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using VanEck Retail hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VanEck Retail ETF from the perspective of VanEck Retail response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of VanEck Retail ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 258.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.36. VanEck Retail after-hype prediction price | USD 265.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Retail to cross-verify your projections. VanEck Retail Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VanEck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VanEck using various technical indicators. When you analyze VanEck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VanEck Retail 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of VanEck Retail ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 258.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.03, mean absolute percentage error of 26.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 165.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Retail's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VanEck Retail Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VanEck Retail | VanEck Retail Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VanEck Retail Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VanEck Retail's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Retail's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 257.38 and 258.95, respectively. We have considered VanEck Retail's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Retail etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Retail etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 84.6368 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -3.5862 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.0331 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0156 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 165.358 |
Predictive Modules for VanEck Retail
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Retail ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck Retail's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VanEck Retail After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VanEck Retail at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VanEck Retail or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of VanEck Retail, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VanEck Retail Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VanEck Retail's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VanEck Retail's historical news coverage. VanEck Retail's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 264.74 and 266.30, respectively. We have considered VanEck Retail's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VanEck Retail is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VanEck Retail ETF is based on 3 months time horizon.
VanEck Retail Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as VanEck Retail is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VanEck Retail backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VanEck Retail, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
265.52 | 265.52 | 0.00 |
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VanEck Retail Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January VanEck Retail ETF is traded for 265.52. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. VanEck is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on VanEck Retail is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 265.52. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Retail to cross-verify your projections.VanEck Retail Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VanEck Retail's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VanEck Retail's future price movements. Getting to know how VanEck Retail's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VanEck Retail may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DUBS | Aptus Large Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.86 | (0.07) | 0.92 | (1.27) | 4.34 | |
| SWAN | Amplify BlackSwan Growth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 0.84 | (0.93) | 2.94 | |
| TDV | ProShares SP Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.56 | (1.90) | 4.79 | |
| NANC | Unusual Whales Subversive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.00 | (0.09) | 1.22 | (1.39) | 4.28 | |
| FXG | First Trust Consumer | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.70 | (0.04) | 1.35 | (1.11) | 3.17 | |
| ZECP | Zacks Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.53 | (0.05) | 0.91 | (0.80) | 3.00 | |
| PJP | Invesco Dynamic Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.55 | 0.1 | 1.55 | (1.06) | 4.93 | |
| PIO | Invesco Global Water | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.79 | (0.04) | 1.20 | (1.15) | 3.60 | |
| TACK | Fairlead Tactical Sector | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.62 | (0.10) | 0.77 | (0.79) | 2.41 | |
| FLV | American Century ETF | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.47 | 0.02 | 1.19 | (1.03) | 2.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Retail
For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Retail's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Retail's price trends.VanEck Retail Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Retail etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Retail could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Retail by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VanEck Retail Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck Retail etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck Retail shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck Retail etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck Retail ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 15.75 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.171053 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 264.83 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 265.06 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 6.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.58 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.78 |
VanEck Retail Risk Indicators
The analysis of VanEck Retail's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Retail's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6253 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5168 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7817 | |||
| Variance | 0.6111 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4053 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.267 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VanEck Retail
The number of cover stories for VanEck Retail depends on current market conditions and VanEck Retail's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VanEck Retail is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VanEck Retail's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Retail to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
The market value of VanEck Retail ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Retail's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Retail's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck Retail's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Retail's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Retail's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck Retail is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck Retail's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.