Psychemedics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PMD Stock | USD 2.67 0.06 2.30% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Psychemedics on the next trading day is expected to be 2.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.64. Psychemedics Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Psychemedics stock prices and determine the direction of Psychemedics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Psychemedics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Psychemedics |
Psychemedics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Psychemedics on the next trading day is expected to be 2.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Psychemedics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Psychemedics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Psychemedics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Psychemedics | Psychemedics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Psychemedics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Psychemedics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.8978 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0167 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0273 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.6397 |
Predictive Modules for Psychemedics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Psychemedics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Psychemedics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Psychemedics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Psychemedics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Psychemedics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Psychemedics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Psychemedics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Psychemedics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Psychemedics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Psychemedics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Psychemedics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Psychemedics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Psychemedics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting psychemedics stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.32 | |||
| Variance | 28.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 23.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Psychemedics is a strong investment it is important to analyze Psychemedics' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Psychemedics' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Psychemedics Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in population. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Psychemedics. If investors know Psychemedics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Psychemedics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Earnings Share (0.51) | Revenue Per Share 3.586 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) | Return On Assets (0.16) |
The market value of Psychemedics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Psychemedics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Psychemedics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Psychemedics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Psychemedics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Psychemedics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Psychemedics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Psychemedics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Psychemedics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.