AAM Low Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PFLD Etf | USD 19.75 0.02 0.10% |
AAM Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AAM Low stock prices and determine the direction of AAM Low Duration's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AAM Low's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of AAM Low's etf price is about 62 indicating that the etf is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling AAM, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AAM Low hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AAM Low Duration from the perspective of AAM Low response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AAM Low Duration on the next trading day is expected to be 19.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.43. AAM Low after-hype prediction price | USD 19.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAM Low to cross-verify your projections. AAM Low Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AAM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AAM using various technical indicators. When you analyze AAM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AAM Low Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AAM Low Duration on the next trading day is expected to be 19.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AAM Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AAM Low's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AAM Low Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AAM Low | AAM Low Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AAM Low Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AAM Low's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AAM Low's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.58 and 19.92, respectively. We have considered AAM Low's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AAM Low etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AAM Low etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.3522 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0061 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0239 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.4343 |
Predictive Modules for AAM Low
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AAM Low Duration. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AAM Low After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AAM Low at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AAM Low or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of AAM Low, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AAM Low Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AAM Low's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AAM Low's historical news coverage. AAM Low's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.58 and 19.92, respectively. We have considered AAM Low's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AAM Low is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AAM Low Duration is based on 3 months time horizon.
AAM Low Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as AAM Low is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AAM Low backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AAM Low, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.75 | 19.75 | 0.00 |
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AAM Low Hype Timeline
AAM Low Duration is at this time traded for 19.75. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. AAM is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on AAM Low is about 326.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.75. The company last dividend was issued on the 1st of April 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAM Low to cross-verify your projections.AAM Low Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AAM Low's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AAM Low's future price movements. Getting to know how AAM Low's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AAM Low may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IBHE | IShares | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (1.17) | 0.09 | (0.09) | 0.26 | |
| SGDM | Sprott Gold Miners | (0.57) | 8 per month | 2.45 | 0.15 | 4.65 | (4.58) | 11.03 | |
| SIXH | ETC 6 Meridian | (0.08) | 1 per month | 0.20 | (0) | 0.92 | (0.70) | 2.07 | |
| DTH | WisdomTree International High | 0.39 | 1 per month | 0.27 | 0.12 | 1.04 | (0.71) | 2.47 | |
| TVAL | T Rowe Price | (0.24) | 2 per month | 0.48 | 0.05 | 1.30 | (1.05) | 2.83 | |
| MUST | Columbia Multi Sector Municipal | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.24 | (0.25) | 0.44 | (0.44) | 1.30 | |
| MDIV | First Trust Multi Asset | 0.03 | 4 per month | 0.23 | (0.04) | 0.71 | (0.58) | 1.66 | |
| USDX | SGI Enhanced Core | (0.03) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.73) | 0.12 | (0.16) | 0.47 | |
| ETHW | Bitwise Ethereum ETF | (0.03) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 7.66 | (7.66) | 17.75 | |
| BSJS | Invesco BulletShares 2028 | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.44) | 0.23 | (0.18) | 0.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for AAM Low
For every potential investor in AAM, whether a beginner or expert, AAM Low's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AAM Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AAM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AAM Low's price trends.AAM Low Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AAM Low etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AAM Low could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AAM Low by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AAM Low Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AAM Low etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AAM Low shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AAM Low etf market strength indicators, traders can identify AAM Low Duration entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AAM Low Risk Indicators
The analysis of AAM Low's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AAM Low's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aam etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1424 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1812 | |||
| Variance | 0.0328 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0281 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AAM Low
The number of cover stories for AAM Low depends on current market conditions and AAM Low's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AAM Low is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AAM Low's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAM Low to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
The market value of AAM Low Duration is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AAM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AAM Low's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AAM Low's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AAM Low's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AAM Low's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AAM Low's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AAM Low is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AAM Low's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.