Premier Foods Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| PFD Stock | 195.00 2.00 1.04% |
Premier Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Premier Foods stock prices and determine the direction of Premier Foods PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Premier Foods' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Premier Foods' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.178 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.15 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1569 | Wall Street Target Price 235 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.002 |
Using Premier Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Premier Foods PLC from the perspective of Premier Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Premier Foods PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 183.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 328.72. Premier Foods after-hype prediction price | GBX 195.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Premier |
Premier Foods Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Premier price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Premier using various technical indicators. When you analyze Premier charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Premier Foods Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Premier Foods PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 183.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.30, mean absolute percentage error of 40.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 328.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Premier Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Premier Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Premier Foods Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Premier Foods | Premier Foods Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Premier Foods Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Premier Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Premier Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 182.48 and 185.43, respectively. We have considered Premier Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Premier Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Premier Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.6393 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.302 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0299 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 328.7222 |
Predictive Modules for Premier Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Premier Foods PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Premier Foods After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Premier Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Premier Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Premier Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Premier Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Premier Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Premier Foods' historical news coverage. Premier Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 193.94 and 196.88, respectively. We have considered Premier Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Premier Foods is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Premier Foods PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Premier Foods Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Premier Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Premier Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Premier Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.47 | 0.41 | 37.73 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
195.00 | 195.41 | 0.21 |
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Premier Foods Hype Timeline
Premier Foods PLC is at this time traded for 195.00on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 37.73. Premier is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 195.41 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 61.25%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Premier Foods is about 0.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 232.73. The company reported the revenue of 1.15 B. Net Income was 161.3 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 437.7 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Premier Foods to cross-verify your projections.Premier Foods Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Premier Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Premier Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how Premier Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Premier Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BC94 | Samsung Electronics Co | 14.00 | 4 per month | 2.05 | 0.22 | 5.77 | (3.83) | 13.29 | |
| SMSN | Samsung Electronics Co | 80.00 | 6 per month | 1.98 | 0.22 | 5.89 | (3.83) | 11.22 | |
| SMSD | Samsung Electronics Co | 110.00 | 6 per month | 2.10 | 0.16 | 5.44 | (3.95) | 12.16 | |
| TYT | Toyota Motor Corp | (62.00) | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.09 | 3.26 | (2.89) | 10.55 | |
| 0K1Y | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial | 1.14 | 2 per month | 1.28 | 0.15 | 4.25 | (2.91) | 7.52 | |
| 0R15 | SoftBank Group Corp | 6,720 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.30 | (9.95) | 109.63 | |
| RIGD | Reliance Industries Limited | (0.70) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.43 | (2.57) | 6.17 | |
| SBID | State Bank of | 0.20 | 5 per month | 1.24 | 0.05 | 2.39 | (1.66) | 7.58 | |
| 0M69 | OTP Bank Nyrt | (4,865) | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 221.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Premier Foods
For every potential investor in Premier, whether a beginner or expert, Premier Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Premier Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Premier. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Premier Foods' price trends.Premier Foods Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Premier Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Premier Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Premier Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Premier Foods Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Premier Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Premier Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Premier Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Premier Foods PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 30457.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5319 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 193.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 194.15 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.28 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.0 |
Premier Foods Risk Indicators
The analysis of Premier Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Premier Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting premier stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Variance | 2.12 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Premier Foods
The number of cover stories for Premier Foods depends on current market conditions and Premier Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Premier Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Premier Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Premier Foods Short Properties
Premier Foods' future price predictability will typically decrease when Premier Foods' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Premier Foods PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Premier Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Premier Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 885.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 191.5 M |
Other Information on Investing in Premier Stock
Premier Foods financial ratios help investors to determine whether Premier Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Premier with respect to the benefits of owning Premier Foods security.