Oaktree Acquisition Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| OACC Stock | 10.61 0.06 0.56% |
Oaktree Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Oaktree Acquisition stock prices and determine the direction of Oaktree Acquisition Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Oaktree Acquisition's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Oaktree Acquisition's share price is at 50. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Oaktree Acquisition, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Oaktree Acquisition hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oaktree Acquisition Corp from the perspective of Oaktree Acquisition response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oaktree Acquisition Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.22. Oaktree Acquisition after-hype prediction price | USD 10.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oaktree Acquisition to cross-verify your projections. Oaktree Acquisition Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oaktree price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oaktree using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oaktree charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oaktree Acquisition Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oaktree Acquisition Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0007, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oaktree Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oaktree Acquisition's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oaktree Acquisition Stock Forecast Pattern
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Oaktree Acquisition Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oaktree Acquisition's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oaktree Acquisition's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.39 and 10.88, respectively. We have considered Oaktree Acquisition's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oaktree Acquisition stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oaktree Acquisition stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0033 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0206 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.2152 |
Predictive Modules for Oaktree Acquisition
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oaktree Acquisition Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oaktree Acquisition's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oaktree Acquisition After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oaktree Acquisition at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oaktree Acquisition or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oaktree Acquisition, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oaktree Acquisition Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oaktree Acquisition's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oaktree Acquisition's historical news coverage. Oaktree Acquisition's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.37 and 10.85, respectively. We have considered Oaktree Acquisition's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oaktree Acquisition is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oaktree Acquisition Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oaktree Acquisition Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oaktree Acquisition is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oaktree Acquisition backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oaktree Acquisition, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.61 | 10.61 | 0.00 |
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Oaktree Acquisition Hype Timeline
Oaktree Acquisition Corp is now traded for 10.61. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Oaktree is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oaktree Acquisition is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.61. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oaktree Acquisition to cross-verify your projections.Oaktree Acquisition Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oaktree Acquisition's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oaktree Acquisition's future price movements. Getting to know how Oaktree Acquisition's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oaktree Acquisition may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PMTR | Perimeter Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 0.49 | (0.68) | 1.93 | |
| AACB | Artius II Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.38) | 0.19 | (0.10) | 0.39 | |
| SOUL | Soulpower Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.17 | (0.28) | 0.30 | (0.30) | 1.27 | |
| FACT | FACT II Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.39 | (0.09) | 0.77 | (0.86) | 2.10 | |
| MLAC | Mountain Lake Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.44) | 0.19 | (0.19) | 0.86 | |
| CGCT | Cartesian Growth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 0.29 | (0.19) | 2.17 | |
| MBAV | M3 Brigade Acquisition V | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.36 | (0.08) | 0.47 | (0.28) | 3.98 | |
| COPL | Copley Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.17 | (0.15) | 0.39 | (0.39) | 1.85 | |
| RAC | Rithm Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.21 | (0.17) | 0.68 | (0.38) | 1.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oaktree Acquisition
For every potential investor in Oaktree, whether a beginner or expert, Oaktree Acquisition's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oaktree Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oaktree. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oaktree Acquisition's price trends.Oaktree Acquisition Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oaktree Acquisition stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oaktree Acquisition could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oaktree Acquisition by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oaktree Acquisition Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oaktree Acquisition stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oaktree Acquisition shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oaktree Acquisition stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oaktree Acquisition Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.61 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.09 |
Oaktree Acquisition Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oaktree Acquisition's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oaktree Acquisition's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oaktree stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1675 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1948 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2437 | |||
| Variance | 0.0594 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1063 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.038 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oaktree Acquisition
The number of cover stories for Oaktree Acquisition depends on current market conditions and Oaktree Acquisition's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oaktree Acquisition is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oaktree Acquisition's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Oaktree Acquisition Short Properties
Oaktree Acquisition's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oaktree Acquisition's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oaktree Acquisition Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oaktree Acquisition's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oaktree Acquisition's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Short Percent Float | 0.0029 | |
| Shares Float | 18.4 M | |
| Short Percent | 0.0029 |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oaktree Acquisition to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Oaktree diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oaktree Acquisition. Anticipated expansion of Oaktree directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Oaktree Acquisition data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Oaktree Acquisition Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Oaktree's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Oaktree Acquisition's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Oaktree Acquisition's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Oaktree Acquisition's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Oaktree Acquisition should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Oaktree Acquisition's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.