Nomura Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NMR Stock | USD 8.98 0.31 3.34% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nomura Holdings ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 9.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.26. Nomura Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Nomura Holdings' stock price is slightly above 65. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Nomura, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Nomura Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nomura Holdings ADR from the perspective of Nomura Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nomura Holdings ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 9.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.26. Nomura Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 8.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nomura Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Nomura Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Nomura price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nomura using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nomura charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nomura Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nomura Holdings ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 9.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nomura Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nomura Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nomura Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Nomura Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nomura Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nomura Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.55 and 10.78, respectively. We have considered Nomura Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nomura Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nomura Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.501 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1354 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.2612 |
Predictive Modules for Nomura Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nomura Holdings ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nomura Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Nomura Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nomura Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nomura Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Nomura Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Nomura Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nomura Holdings' historical news coverage. Nomura Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.37 and 10.59, respectively. We have considered Nomura Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Nomura Holdings is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nomura Holdings ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Nomura Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nomura Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nomura Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nomura Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.98 | 8.98 | 0.00 |
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Nomura Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Nomura Holdings ADR is traded for 8.98. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Nomura is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.44%. %. The volatility of related hype on Nomura Holdings is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.98. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.2. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Nomura Holdings ADR has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.85. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of September 2025. The firm had 10:1 split on the 17th of December 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nomura Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Nomura Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Nomura Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nomura Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Nomura Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nomura Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TW | Tradeweb Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.09 | (2.41) | 8.18 | |
| RF | Regions Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | 0.11 | 3.11 | (1.49) | 6.18 | |
| BAP | Credicorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.25 | 2.46 | (1.57) | 7.43 | |
| KEY | KeyCorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.73 | 0.18 | 2.76 | (1.33) | 5.63 | |
| HBAN | Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.56 | 0.05 | 2.86 | (2.40) | 5.86 | |
| CFG | Citizens Financial Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.77 | 0.17 | 2.80 | (1.66) | 6.36 | |
| TROW | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.41 | (0.01) | 2.42 | (2.64) | 6.21 | |
| L | Loews Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.74 | (0.07) | 1.41 | (1.38) | 3.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Nomura Holdings
For every potential investor in Nomura, whether a beginner or expert, Nomura Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nomura Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nomura. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nomura Holdings' price trends.Nomura Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nomura Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nomura Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nomura Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nomura Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nomura Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nomura Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nomura Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nomura Holdings ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Nomura Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nomura Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nomura Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nomura stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Variance | 2.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Nomura Holdings
The number of cover stories for Nomura Holdings depends on current market conditions and Nomura Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nomura Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nomura Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Nomura Holdings Short Properties
Nomura Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Nomura Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nomura Holdings ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nomura Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nomura Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.5 T |
Additional Tools for Nomura Stock Analysis
When running Nomura Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Nomura Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nomura Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Nomura Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nomura Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nomura Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nomura Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.