Norwegian Cruise Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NCLH Stock | USD 16.61 0.56 3.49% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwegian Cruise Line on the next trading day is expected to be 16.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.77. Norwegian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Norwegian Cruise's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Norwegian Cruise Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwegian Cruise Line on the next trading day is expected to be 16.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Norwegian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Norwegian Cruise's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Norwegian Cruise Stock Forecast Pattern
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Norwegian Cruise Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Norwegian Cruise's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Norwegian Cruise's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.12 and 20.82, respectively. We have considered Norwegian Cruise's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Norwegian Cruise stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Norwegian Cruise stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6741 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0323 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.7693 |
Predictive Modules for Norwegian Cruise
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Norwegian Cruise Line. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Norwegian Cruise
For every potential investor in Norwegian, whether a beginner or expert, Norwegian Cruise's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Norwegian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Norwegian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Norwegian Cruise's price trends.Norwegian Cruise Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Norwegian Cruise stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Norwegian Cruise could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Norwegian Cruise by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Norwegian Cruise Line Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Norwegian Cruise's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Norwegian Cruise's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Norwegian Cruise Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Norwegian Cruise stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Norwegian Cruise shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Norwegian Cruise stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Norwegian Cruise Line entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 265008.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.191489 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.46 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.56 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 24.47 |
Norwegian Cruise Risk Indicators
The analysis of Norwegian Cruise's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Norwegian Cruise's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting norwegian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.35 | |||
| Variance | 18.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norwegian Cruise to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Norwegian Cruise. If investors know Norwegian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Norwegian Cruise listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Norwegian Cruise Line is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Norwegian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Norwegian Cruise's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Norwegian Cruise's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Norwegian Cruise's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Norwegian Cruise's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Norwegian Cruise's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Norwegian Cruise is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Norwegian Cruise's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.