Micron Technology Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| MU Stock | 96.99 5.56 6.08% |
Micron Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Micron Technology's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Micron Technology's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Micron Technology fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Micron Technology's share price is above 70 as of today. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Micron, making its price go up or down. Momentum 74
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.754 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.567 |
Using Micron Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Micron Technology from the perspective of Micron Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 96.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.62. Micron Technology after-hype prediction price | CAD 103.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Micron |
Micron Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Micron price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Micron using various technical indicators. When you analyze Micron charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Micron Technology Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 96.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.59, mean absolute percentage error of 9.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Micron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Micron Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Micron Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Micron Technology | Micron Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Micron Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Micron Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Micron Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 92.52 and 101.46, respectively. We have considered Micron Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Micron Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Micron Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.573 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.1278 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5936 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.041 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 155.615 |
Predictive Modules for Micron Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Micron Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Micron Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Micron Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Micron Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Micron Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Micron Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Micron Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Micron Technology's historical news coverage. Micron Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 87.29 and 108.34, respectively. We have considered Micron Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Micron Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Micron Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Micron Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Micron Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Micron Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Micron Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.18 | 4.47 | 6.88 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
96.99 | 103.87 | 7.09 |
|
Micron Technology Hype Timeline
Micron Technology is now traded for 96.99on NEO Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 6.88, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Micron is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 103.87 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 76.67%. The price boost on the next news is forecasted to be 7.09%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.18%. The volatility of related hype on Micron Technology is about 10517.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 96.94. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 0.28 %, which maeans that even a very small decline in it revenue will erase profits resulting in a net loss. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 0.45 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of $0.45. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Micron Technology to cross-verify your projections.Micron Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Micron Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Micron Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Micron Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Micron Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DR | Medical Facilities | (0.22) | 9 per month | 1.33 | 0 | 3.05 | (2.21) | 8.99 | |
| AQN-PD | Algonquin Power Utilities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.36 | (0.07) | 0.92 | (0.79) | 2.57 | |
| RCH | Richelieu Hardware | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.96 | 0.04 | 2.52 | (1.55) | 4.79 | |
| JNH | Jack Nathan Medical | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HPQ | HPQ Silicon Resources | 0.00 | 2 per month | 2.56 | 0.02 | 5.56 | (5.56) | 15.56 | |
| IPO | InPlay Oil Corp | (0.14) | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.13 | 3.29 | (2.34) | 7.07 | |
| SPRX | Sparx Technology | (0.21) | 6 per month | 2.56 | 0.04 | 4.81 | (4.85) | 14.28 | |
| PMZ-UN | Primaris Retail RE | 0.22 | 4 per month | 0.67 | 0.01 | 2.01 | (1.31) | 5.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Micron Technology
For every potential investor in Micron, whether a beginner or expert, Micron Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Micron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Micron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Micron Technology's price trends.Micron Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Micron Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Micron Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Micron Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Micron Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Micron Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Micron Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Micron Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Micron Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Micron Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Micron Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Micron Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting micron stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.31 | |||
| Variance | 18.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Micron Technology
The number of cover stories for Micron Technology depends on current market conditions and Micron Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Micron Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Micron Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Micron Technology to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Micron Stock, please use our How to Invest in Micron Technology guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.