Masco Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MAS Stock  USD 83.21  0.38  0.46%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Masco on the next trading day is expected to be 84.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.98. Masco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 12.17 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.38 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 279.1 M in 2024, whereas Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop slightly above 570.3 M in 2024.
Most investors in Masco cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Masco's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Masco's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results. Masco polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Masco as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Masco Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Masco on the next trading day is expected to be 84.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36, mean absolute percentage error of 2.97, and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.98.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Masco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Masco's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Masco Stock Forecast Pattern

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Masco Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Masco's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Masco's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 82.48 and 85.99, respectively. We have considered Masco's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
83.21
84.24
Expected Value
85.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Masco stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Masco stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.1979
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3603
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0177
SAESum of the absolute errors82.9764
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Masco historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Masco

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Masco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Masco's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
81.5283.2785.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.0279.7791.53
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
59.0964.9372.07
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.041.081.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Masco. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Masco's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Masco's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Masco.

Other Forecasting Options for Masco

For every potential investor in Masco, whether a beginner or expert, Masco's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Masco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Masco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Masco's price trends.

Masco Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Masco stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Masco could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Masco by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Masco Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Masco's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Masco's current price.

Masco Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Masco stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Masco shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Masco stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Masco entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Masco Risk Indicators

The analysis of Masco's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Masco's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting masco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Masco Stock Analysis

When running Masco's price analysis, check to measure Masco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Masco is operating at the current time. Most of Masco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Masco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Masco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Masco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.