Lightbridge Corp Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

LTBR Stock  USD 17.62  0.73  3.98%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Lightbridge Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 144.82. Lightbridge Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Lightbridge Corp's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Lightbridge Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Lightbridge Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Lightbridge Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Lightbridge Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Lightbridge Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lightbridge Corp from the perspective of Lightbridge Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Lightbridge Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 144.82.

Lightbridge Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 18.38  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lightbridge Corp to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Lightbridge Stock, please use our How to Invest in Lightbridge Corp guide.

Lightbridge Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Lightbridge price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lightbridge using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lightbridge charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Lightbridge Corp price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Lightbridge Corp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Lightbridge Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.37, mean absolute percentage error of 8.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 144.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lightbridge Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lightbridge Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lightbridge Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Lightbridge CorpLightbridge Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Lightbridge Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lightbridge Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lightbridge Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.73 and 20.09, respectively. We have considered Lightbridge Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.62
13.91
Expected Value
20.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lightbridge Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lightbridge Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.1943
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.3741
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1379
SAESum of the absolute errors144.8227
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Lightbridge Corp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Lightbridge Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lightbridge Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.2018.3824.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.1613.3419.52
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.4215.7819.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Lightbridge Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Lightbridge Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Lightbridge Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Lightbridge Corp.

Lightbridge Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Lightbridge Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lightbridge Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lightbridge Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Lightbridge Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Lightbridge Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lightbridge Corp's historical news coverage. Lightbridge Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.20 and 24.56, respectively. We have considered Lightbridge Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
17.62
18.38
After-hype Price
24.56
Upside
Lightbridge Corp is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lightbridge Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Lightbridge Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lightbridge Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lightbridge Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lightbridge Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.23 
6.18
 0.00  
  0.06 
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
17.62
18.38
0.16 
0.00  
Notes

Lightbridge Corp Hype Timeline

Lightbridge Corp is now traded for 17.62. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.06. Lightbridge is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.38 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Lightbridge Corp is about 2404.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.56. Net Loss for the year was (11.79 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lightbridge Corp to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Lightbridge Stock, please use our How to Invest in Lightbridge Corp guide.

Lightbridge Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Lightbridge Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lightbridge Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Lightbridge Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lightbridge Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ADSEAds Tec Energy(0.08)9 per month 2.58  0.08  5.43 (4.04) 17.85 
EHEhang Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 5.79 (5.09) 17.58 
KEKimball Electronics(1.07)8 per month 2.45  0  3.71 (4.20) 12.83 
TET1 Energy 0.00 0 per month 5.40  0.20  15.44 (8.86) 30.81 
VSTSVestis 0.00 0 per month 3.39  0.11  6.21 (6.30) 18.68 
RYIRyerson Holding Corp 0.00 0 per month 2.20  0.15  4.22 (4.44) 11.34 
RRRichtech Robotics Class(1.42)3 per month 0.00 (0.06) 12.77 (8.78) 33.10 
KRNTKornit Digital 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 4.73 (4.50) 12.01 
ASPNAspen Aerogels 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 5.80 (6.12) 52.64 
NXQuanex Building Products 0.00 0 per month 2.41  0.11  6.18 (4.72) 14.57 

Other Forecasting Options for Lightbridge Corp

For every potential investor in Lightbridge, whether a beginner or expert, Lightbridge Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lightbridge Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lightbridge. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lightbridge Corp's price trends.

Lightbridge Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lightbridge Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lightbridge Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lightbridge Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Lightbridge Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lightbridge Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lightbridge Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lightbridge Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lightbridge Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lightbridge Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lightbridge Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lightbridge Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lightbridge stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Lightbridge Corp

The number of cover stories for Lightbridge Corp depends on current market conditions and Lightbridge Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lightbridge Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lightbridge Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Lightbridge Corp Short Properties

Lightbridge Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lightbridge Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lightbridge Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lightbridge Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lightbridge Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding14.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments40 M

Additional Tools for Lightbridge Stock Analysis

When running Lightbridge Corp's price analysis, check to measure Lightbridge Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lightbridge Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Lightbridge Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lightbridge Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lightbridge Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lightbridge Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.