International Game Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

IGTDelisted Stock  USD 18.14  0.14  0.78%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of International Game Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 18.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.03. International Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
International Game simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for International Game Technology are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as International Game prices get older.

International Game Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of International Game Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 18.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict International Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that International Game's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

International Game Stock Forecast Pattern

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International Game Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting International Game's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. International Game's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.92 and 20.36, respectively. We have considered International Game's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.14
18.14
Expected Value
20.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of International Game stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent International Game stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.2533
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0402
MADMean absolute deviation0.2505
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0157
SAESum of the absolute errors15.03
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting International Game Technology forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent International Game observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for International Game

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Game. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.0018.2320.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.4514.6819.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.1316.9618.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as International Game. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against International Game's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, International Game's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in International Game.

Other Forecasting Options for International Game

For every potential investor in International, whether a beginner or expert, International Game's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. International Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in International. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying International Game's price trends.

International Game Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with International Game stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of International Game could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing International Game by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

International Game Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of International Game's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of International Game's current price.

International Game Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how International Game stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading International Game shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying International Game stock market strength indicators, traders can identify International Game Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

International Game Risk Indicators

The analysis of International Game's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in International Game's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting international stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Game to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

Other Consideration for investing in International Stock

If you are still planning to invest in International Game check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the International Game's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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