Gladstone Commercial Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GOOD Stock | USD 11.41 0.02 0.18% |
Gladstone Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gladstone Commercial stock prices and determine the direction of Gladstone Commercial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gladstone Commercial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Gladstone Commercial's share price is at 59. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gladstone Commercial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.02 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1133 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.15 | Wall Street Target Price 12.5 |
Using Gladstone Commercial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gladstone Commercial from the perspective of Gladstone Commercial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Gladstone Commercial using Gladstone Commercial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Gladstone using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Gladstone Commercial's stock price.
Gladstone Commercial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Gladstone Commercial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Gladstone. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Gladstone Commercial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 12.7049 | Short Percent 0.052 | Short Ratio 4.4 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 10.9828 |
Gladstone Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gladstone Commercial on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.70.Gladstone Commercial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Gladstone Commercial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Gladstone. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Gladstone can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Gladstone Commercial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Gladstone Commercial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Gladstone Commercial.
Gladstone Commercial Implied Volatility | 1.04 |
Gladstone Commercial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Gladstone Commercial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Gladstone Commercial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Gladstone Commercial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Gladstone Commercial's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gladstone Commercial on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.70. Gladstone Commercial after-hype prediction price | USD 11.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Gladstone contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Gladstone Commercial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.065% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Gladstone Commercial trading at USD 11.41, that is roughly USD 0.007417 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Gladstone Commercial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Gladstone Commercial options at the current volatility level of 1.04%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Gladstone Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Gladstone Commercial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Gladstone Commercial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Gladstone Commercial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Gladstone Commercial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Gladstone Commercial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Gladstone Commercial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Gladstone. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Gladstone Commercial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gladstone price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gladstone using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gladstone charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gladstone Commercial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gladstone Commercial on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gladstone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gladstone Commercial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gladstone Commercial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gladstone Commercial | Gladstone Commercial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gladstone Commercial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gladstone Commercial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gladstone Commercial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.02 and 12.85, respectively. We have considered Gladstone Commercial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gladstone Commercial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gladstone Commercial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0197 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1135 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.6966 |
Predictive Modules for Gladstone Commercial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gladstone Commercial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gladstone Commercial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gladstone Commercial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gladstone Commercial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gladstone Commercial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gladstone Commercial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gladstone Commercial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gladstone Commercial's historical news coverage. Gladstone Commercial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.99 and 12.83, respectively. We have considered Gladstone Commercial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gladstone Commercial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gladstone Commercial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gladstone Commercial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gladstone Commercial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gladstone Commercial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gladstone Commercial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.42 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.41 | 11.41 | 0.00 |
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Gladstone Commercial Hype Timeline
Gladstone Commercial is currently traded for 11.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Gladstone is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gladstone Commercial is about 1539.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.42. About 51.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Gladstone Commercial was currently reported as 3.82. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 940.0. Gladstone Commercial last dividend was issued on the 18th of February 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gladstone Commercial to cross-verify your projections.Gladstone Commercial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gladstone Commercial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gladstone Commercial's future price movements. Getting to know how Gladstone Commercial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gladstone Commercial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AHH | Armada Hflr Pr | 0.21 | 14 per month | 1.58 | (0) | 3.16 | (2.97) | 7.04 | |
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth | 0.21 | 11 per month | 0.78 | 0.15 | 1.74 | (1.57) | 4.98 | |
| UHT | Universal Health Realty | 0.48 | 9 per month | 1.07 | 0.05 | 2.05 | (2.05) | 6.30 | |
| PKST | Peakstone Realty Trust | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.59 | 0.06 | 2.95 | (2.35) | 12.25 | |
| BFS | Saul Centers | (0.28) | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.02 | 1.71 | (1.72) | 4.95 | |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties | 0.21 | 17 per month | 1.01 | (0.02) | 2.17 | (1.72) | 6.81 | |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.66 | (2.77) | 6.97 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | (0.13) | 12 per month | 0.80 | 0.20 | 2.47 | (1.86) | 8.03 | |
| ADAM | New York Mortgage | (0.1) | 10 per month | 1.54 | 0.14 | 3.31 | (1.90) | 9.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gladstone Commercial
For every potential investor in Gladstone, whether a beginner or expert, Gladstone Commercial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gladstone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gladstone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gladstone Commercial's price trends.Gladstone Commercial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gladstone Commercial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gladstone Commercial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gladstone Commercial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gladstone Commercial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gladstone Commercial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gladstone Commercial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gladstone Commercial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gladstone Commercial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gladstone Commercial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gladstone Commercial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gladstone Commercial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gladstone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9822 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Variance | 1.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gladstone Commercial
The number of cover stories for Gladstone Commercial depends on current market conditions and Gladstone Commercial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gladstone Commercial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gladstone Commercial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gladstone Commercial Short Properties
Gladstone Commercial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gladstone Commercial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gladstone Commercial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gladstone Commercial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gladstone Commercial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gladstone Commercial to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Gladstone Stock refer to our How to Trade Gladstone Stock guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Diversified REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gladstone Commercial. If investors know Gladstone will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gladstone Commercial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Dividend Share 1.2 | Earnings Share 0.19 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 |
The market value of Gladstone Commercial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gladstone that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gladstone Commercial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gladstone Commercial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gladstone Commercial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gladstone Commercial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gladstone Commercial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gladstone Commercial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gladstone Commercial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.