Geely Automobile OTC Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GELHY Stock | 42.75 0.05 0.12% |
Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Geely Automobile based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Geely Automobile hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Geely Automobile Holdings from the perspective of Geely Automobile response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Geely Automobile Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 42.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.01. Geely Automobile after-hype prediction price | USD 42.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Geely |
Geely Automobile Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Geely price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Geely using various technical indicators. When you analyze Geely charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Geely Automobile Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Geely Automobile Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 42.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Geely OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Geely Automobile's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Geely Automobile OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
Geely Automobile Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Geely Automobile's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Geely Automobile's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.26 and 44.25, respectively. We have considered Geely Automobile's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Geely Automobile otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Geely Automobile otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4734 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.092 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5335 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.0083 |
Predictive Modules for Geely Automobile
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Geely Automobile Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Geely Automobile. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Geely Automobile's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Geely Automobile's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Geely Automobile Holdings.Geely Automobile Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Geely Automobile at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Geely Automobile or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Geely Automobile, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Geely Automobile OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Geely Automobile is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Geely Automobile backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Geely Automobile, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.49 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.75 | 42.75 | 0.00 |
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Geely Automobile Hype Timeline
Geely Automobile Holdings is currently traded for 42.75. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Geely is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Geely Automobile is about 1379.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.73. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any otc stock could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.Geely Automobile Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Geely Automobile's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Geely Automobile's future price movements. Getting to know how Geely Automobile's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Geely Automobile may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XPEV | Xpeng Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.80 | (6.15) | 26.46 | |
| LI | Li Auto | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.48 | (3.27) | 7.91 | |
| PHM | PulteGroup | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.03 | 5.00 | (2.19) | 9.97 | |
| HMC | Honda Motor Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.85 | (1.97) | 6.42 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.13 | 2.71 | (2.03) | 16.26 | |
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | (0.97) | 9 per month | 1.74 | 0.04 | 3.63 | (2.83) | 7.84 | |
| NIO | Nio Class A | (0.11) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.92 | (5.45) | 11.98 | |
| STLA | Stellantis NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.66 | (3.99) | 11.15 | |
| RIVN | Rivian Automotive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.07 | 0.05 | 10.70 | (6.11) | 31.17 | |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.03 | 2.66 | (1.92) | 5.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for Geely Automobile
For every potential investor in Geely, whether a beginner or expert, Geely Automobile's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Geely OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Geely. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Geely Automobile's price trends.Geely Automobile Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Geely Automobile otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Geely Automobile could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Geely Automobile by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Geely Automobile Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Geely Automobile otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Geely Automobile shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Geely Automobile otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Geely Automobile Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Geely Automobile Risk Indicators
The analysis of Geely Automobile's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Geely Automobile's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting geely otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Variance | 2.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Geely Automobile
The number of cover stories for Geely Automobile depends on current market conditions and Geely Automobile's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Geely Automobile is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Geely Automobile's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Geely OTC Stock Analysis
When running Geely Automobile's price analysis, check to measure Geely Automobile's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Geely Automobile is operating at the current time. Most of Geely Automobile's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Geely Automobile's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Geely Automobile's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Geely Automobile to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.