Paragon 28 Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FNA Stock | USD 4.89 0.11 2.30% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Paragon 28 on the next trading day is expected to be 4.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.27. Paragon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Paragon 28 stock prices and determine the direction of Paragon 28's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Paragon 28's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Paragon |
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 75.6 M | Current Value 53.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 33.3 M |
Paragon 28 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of October
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Paragon 28 on the next trading day is expected to be 4.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Paragon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Paragon 28's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Paragon 28 Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Paragon 28 | Paragon 28 Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Paragon 28 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Paragon 28's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Paragon 28's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 9.57, respectively. We have considered Paragon 28's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Paragon 28 stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Paragon 28 stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7516 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.234 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0345 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.2716 |
Predictive Modules for Paragon 28
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Paragon 28. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Paragon 28's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Paragon 28
For every potential investor in Paragon, whether a beginner or expert, Paragon 28's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Paragon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Paragon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Paragon 28's price trends.View Paragon 28 Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Paragon 28 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Paragon 28's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Paragon 28's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Paragon 28 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Paragon 28 stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Paragon 28 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Paragon 28 stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Paragon 28 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Paragon 28 Risk Indicators
The analysis of Paragon 28's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Paragon 28's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting paragon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.13 | |||
| Variance | 26.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| V | Visa Class A | |
| MSFT | Microsoft |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paragon 28 to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Paragon Stock refer to our How to Trade Paragon Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Paragon 28. If investors know Paragon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Paragon 28 listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.66) | Revenue Per Share 2.843 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.196 | Return On Assets (0.09) | Return On Equity (0.32) |
The market value of Paragon 28 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Paragon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Paragon 28's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Paragon 28's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Paragon 28's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Paragon 28's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Paragon 28's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Paragon 28 is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Paragon 28's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.