Federated Premier Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

FMN Fund  USD 11.32  0.03  0.27%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Federated Premier Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 11.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.61. Federated Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Federated Premier Municipal is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Federated Premier 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Federated Premier Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 11.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federated Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federated Premier's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Federated Premier Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Federated PremierFederated Premier Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Federated Premier Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Federated Premier's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Federated Premier's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.60 and 12.06, respectively. We have considered Federated Premier's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.32
11.33
Expected Value
12.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federated Premier fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federated Premier fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.095
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0175
MADMean absolute deviation0.0984
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0083
SAESum of the absolute errors5.6075
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Federated Premier. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Federated Premier Municipal and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Federated Premier

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Premier. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.5611.2912.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.6911.4212.15
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Federated Premier

For every potential investor in Federated, whether a beginner or expert, Federated Premier's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Federated Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Federated. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Federated Premier's price trends.

Federated Premier Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federated Premier fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federated Premier could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federated Premier by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Federated Premier Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Federated Premier's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Federated Premier's current price.

Federated Premier Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Federated Premier fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Federated Premier shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Federated Premier fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Federated Premier Municipal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Federated Premier Risk Indicators

The analysis of Federated Premier's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federated Premier's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting federated fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Federated Premier

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Federated Premier position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Federated Premier will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Federated Fund

  0.73ZTR Virtus Global DividendPairCorr

Moving against Federated Fund

  0.48BA Boeing Fiscal Year End 29th of January 2025 PairCorr
  0.41GUT Gabelli Utility ClosedPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Federated Premier could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Federated Premier when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Federated Premier - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Federated Premier Municipal to buy it.
The correlation of Federated Premier is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Federated Premier moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Federated Premier moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Federated Premier can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Federated Fund

Federated Premier financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federated Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federated with respect to the benefits of owning Federated Premier security.
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