Cullman Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CULL Stock  USD 12.25  0.25  2.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cullman Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.81. Cullman Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Cullman Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cullman Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cullman Bancorp fundamentals over time.
At this time, Cullman Bancorp's Payables Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 0.06 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 11.13. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 4.4 M. The value of Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to slide to about 2.9 M.

Cullman Bancorp Cash Forecast

To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Cullman Bancorp's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2008-12-31
Previous Quarter
3.8 M
Current Value
4.6 M
Quarterly Volatility
1.7 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Cullman Bancorp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Cullman Bancorp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Cullman Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Cullman Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cullman Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cullman Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cullman Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Cullman Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cullman Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cullman Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.02 and 13.71, respectively. We have considered Cullman Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.25
12.36
Expected Value
13.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cullman Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cullman Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.4789
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0788
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0068
SAESum of the absolute errors4.8074
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Cullman Bancorp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Cullman Bancorp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Cullman Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cullman Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.0312.3113.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.6911.9713.25
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.7812.1212.47
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Cullman Bancorp

For every potential investor in Cullman, whether a beginner or expert, Cullman Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cullman Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cullman. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cullman Bancorp's price trends.

Cullman Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cullman Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cullman Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cullman Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cullman Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cullman Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cullman Bancorp's current price.

Cullman Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cullman Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cullman Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cullman Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cullman Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cullman Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cullman Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cullman Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cullman stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Cullman Bancorp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Cullman Bancorp's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Cullman Bancorp's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Cullman Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cullman Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Cullman Stock please use our How to buy in Cullman Stock guide.
You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cullman Bancorp. If investors know Cullman will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cullman Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.23
Earnings Share
0.5
Revenue Per Share
2.56
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.018
Return On Assets
0.0086
The market value of Cullman Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cullman that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cullman Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cullman Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cullman Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cullman Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cullman Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cullman Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cullman Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.