Cardiff Oncology Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CRDF Stock  USD 1.62  0.38  19.00%   
Cardiff Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cardiff Oncology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, the value of RSI of Cardiff Oncology's share price is approaching 33 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Cardiff Oncology, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 33

 Sell Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Cardiff Oncology's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Cardiff Oncology and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Cardiff Oncology's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Cardiff Oncology, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Cardiff Oncology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cardiff Oncology from the perspective of Cardiff Oncology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cardiff Oncology on the next trading day is expected to be 1.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.30.

Cardiff Oncology after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 1.62  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cardiff Oncology to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Cardiff Stock please use our How to Invest in Cardiff Oncology guide.

Cardiff Oncology Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Cardiff price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cardiff using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cardiff charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Cardiff Oncology - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Cardiff Oncology prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Cardiff Oncology price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Cardiff Oncology.

Cardiff Oncology Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cardiff Oncology on the next trading day is expected to be 1.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cardiff Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cardiff Oncology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cardiff Oncology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cardiff Oncology  Cardiff Oncology Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Cardiff Oncology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cardiff Oncology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cardiff Oncology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.88, respectively. We have considered Cardiff Oncology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.62
1.49
Expected Value
7.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cardiff Oncology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cardiff Oncology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0113
MADMean absolute deviation0.1067
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0446
SAESum of the absolute errors6.2964
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Cardiff Oncology observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Cardiff Oncology observations.

Predictive Modules for Cardiff Oncology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cardiff Oncology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cardiff Oncology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.081.628.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.071.477.85
Details

Cardiff Oncology After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Cardiff Oncology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cardiff Oncology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cardiff Oncology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Cardiff Oncology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Cardiff Oncology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cardiff Oncology's historical news coverage. Cardiff Oncology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 8.00, respectively. We have considered Cardiff Oncology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1.62
1.62
After-hype Price
8.00
Upside
Cardiff Oncology is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cardiff Oncology is based on 3 months time horizon.

Cardiff Oncology Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cardiff Oncology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cardiff Oncology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cardiff Oncology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.38 
6.38
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.62
1.62
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Cardiff Oncology Hype Timeline

Cardiff Oncology is currently traded for 1.62. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Cardiff is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.38%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cardiff Oncology is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.62. About 34.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Cardiff Oncology was currently reported as 0.73. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.79. Cardiff Oncology last dividend was issued on the 20th of February 2019. The entity had 1:6 split on the 20th of February 2019. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cardiff Oncology to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Cardiff Stock please use our How to Invest in Cardiff Oncology guide.

Cardiff Oncology Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Cardiff Oncology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cardiff Oncology's future price movements. Getting to know how Cardiff Oncology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cardiff Oncology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
APLTApplied Therapeutics 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.21) 10.00 (15.73) 83.66 
CRBPCorbus Pharmaceuticals Holding 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 4.60 (6.85) 16.04 
ELTXElicio Therapeutics 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 5.50 (4.15) 21.98 
MOLNMolecular Partners AG 0.00 0 per month 3.35  0.06  4.73 (5.45) 26.47 
FBRXForte Biosciences 0.00 0 per month 6.18  0.20  13.16 (9.14) 40.19 
PEPGPepGen 0.00 0 per month 5.79  0.05  10.14 (9.08) 25.08 
RANIRani Therapeutics Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 8.21 (8.96) 26.23 
MISTMilestone Pharmaceuticals 0.00 0 per month 4.17  0.01  6.15 (5.80) 34.31 
SAVACassava Sciences 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 9.05 (7.56) 35.02 
IPHAInnate Pharma 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.03) 3.41 (3.87) 39.49 

Other Forecasting Options for Cardiff Oncology

For every potential investor in Cardiff, whether a beginner or expert, Cardiff Oncology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cardiff Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cardiff. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cardiff Oncology's price trends.

Cardiff Oncology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cardiff Oncology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cardiff Oncology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cardiff Oncology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cardiff Oncology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cardiff Oncology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cardiff Oncology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cardiff Oncology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cardiff Oncology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cardiff Oncology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cardiff Oncology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cardiff Oncology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cardiff stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Cardiff Oncology

The number of cover stories for Cardiff Oncology depends on current market conditions and Cardiff Oncology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cardiff Oncology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cardiff Oncology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Cardiff Oncology Short Properties

Cardiff Oncology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cardiff Oncology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cardiff Oncology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cardiff Oncology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cardiff Oncology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding47.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments91.7 M
When determining whether Cardiff Oncology is a strong investment it is important to analyze Cardiff Oncology's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Cardiff Oncology's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Cardiff Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cardiff Oncology to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Cardiff Stock please use our How to Invest in Cardiff Oncology guide.
You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Can Stock industry sustain growth momentum? Does Cardiff have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cardiff Oncology. Projected growth potential of Cardiff fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Cardiff Oncology demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Understanding Cardiff Oncology requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Cardiff's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Cardiff Oncology's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Cardiff Oncology's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Cardiff Oncology's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Cardiff Oncology should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Cardiff Oncology's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.