Centerra Gold Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

Most investors in Centerra Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Centerra Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Centerra Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results. A naive forecasting model for Centerra Gold is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Centerra Gold value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Centerra Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Centerra Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 7.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.47.

Centerra Gold Stock Forecast Pattern

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Centerra Gold Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Centerra Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Centerra Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Centerra Gold. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Centerra Gold. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Centerra Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Centerra Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 5.04 7.61 10.18 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 4.94 7.51 10.08 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 7.07 7.40 7.74 Details

12 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 7.05 7.75 8.60 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Centerra Gold. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Centerra Gold's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Centerra Gold's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Centerra Gold.

Other Forecasting Options for Centerra Gold

For every potential investor in Centerra, whether a beginner or expert, Centerra Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Centerra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Centerra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Centerra Gold's price trends.

Centerra Gold Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Centerra Gold Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Centerra Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Centerra Gold's current price.

Centerra Gold Market Strength Events

Centerra Gold Risk Indicators

Additional Tools for Centerra Stock Analysis