Bank of America Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

BAC Stock   53.00  0.71  1.36%   
Bank Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Bank of America's share price is approaching 49 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bank of America, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 49

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Bank of America's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Bank of America and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Bank of America's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bank of America, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Bank of America hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bank of America from the perspective of Bank of America response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of America on the next trading day is expected to be 53.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.46.

Bank of America after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 53.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.

Bank of America Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bank price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bank using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bank charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Bank of America - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Bank of America prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Bank of America price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Bank of America.

Bank of America Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank of America on the next trading day is expected to be 53.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank of America's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank of America Stock Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank of America stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank of America stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0498
MADMean absolute deviation0.3637
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0069
SAESum of the absolute errors21.46
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Bank of America observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Bank of America observations.

Predictive Modules for Bank of America

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank of America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.4153.0054.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
42.8044.3958.30
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
50.9254.1057.27
Details

Bank of America Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

As far as predicting the price of Bank of America at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bank of America or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bank of America, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bank of America Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bank of America is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bank of America backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bank of America, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.59
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
53.00
53.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Bank of America Hype Timeline

Bank of America is currently traded for 53.00on Bolsa de Valores de Lima of Peru. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Bank is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bank of America is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.00. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.

Bank of America Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bank of America's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bank of America's future price movements. Getting to know how Bank of America's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bank of America may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Bank of America Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank of America stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank of America could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank of America by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank of America Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank of America stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank of America shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank of America stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank of America entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank of America Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank of America's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank of America's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Bank of America

The number of cover stories for Bank of America depends on current market conditions and Bank of America's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bank of America is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bank of America's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Bank Stock

When determining whether Bank of America offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bank of America's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bank Of America Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bank Of America Stock:
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
It's important to distinguish between Bank of America's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Bank of America should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Bank of America's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.