American Express Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AXP Stock  ARS 26,250  125.00  0.48%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of American Express Co on the next trading day is expected to be 27,217 with a mean absolute deviation of 669.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41,523. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Express stock prices and determine the direction of American Express Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Express' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through American Express price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

American Express Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of American Express Co on the next trading day is expected to be 27,217 with a mean absolute deviation of 669.72, mean absolute percentage error of 697,981, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41,523.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Express' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Express Stock Forecast Pattern

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American Express Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Express' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Express' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27,215 and 27,220, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26,250
27,215
Downside
27,217
Expected Value
27,220
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria133.4043
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation669.7187
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0274
SAESum of the absolute errors41522.5621
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as American Express Co historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for American Express

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26,24826,25026,252
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25,30425,30628,875
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25,53826,73827,937
Details

Other Forecasting Options for American Express

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Express' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Express' price trends.

American Express Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Express stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Express could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Express by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Express Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Express' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Express' current price.

American Express Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Express stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Express shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Express stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Express Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American Express Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Express' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Express' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in American Stock

American Express financial ratios help investors to determine whether American Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in American with respect to the benefits of owning American Express security.