Triumph Financial Stock Price Prediction
| TFIN Stock | 62.56 0.68 1.10% |
Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.875 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.238 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.478 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.948 | Wall Street Target Price 60.5 |
Using Triumph Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triumph Financial from the perspective of Triumph Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Triumph Financial using Triumph Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Triumph using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Triumph Financial's stock price.
Triumph Financial Short Interest
An investor who is long Triumph Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Triumph Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge Triumph Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 73.2499 | Short Percent 0.149 | Short Ratio 11.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 59.7722 |
Triumph Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Triumph Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Triumph. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Triumph can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Triumph Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Triumph Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Triumph Financial.
Triumph Financial Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
Triumph Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Triumph Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Triumph Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Triumph Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Triumph Financial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Triumph Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Triumph because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Triumph Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 62.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Triumph contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Triumph Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2025-09-19 option contract. With Triumph Financial trading at USD 62.56, that is roughly USD 0.0184 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Triumph Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Triumph Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Triumph Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Triumph Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Triumph Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Triumph Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Triumph Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Triumph Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Triumph Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Triumph Financial's historical news coverage. Triumph Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 59.47 and 65.03, respectively. We have considered Triumph Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Triumph Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Triumph Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Triumph Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Triumph Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triumph Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Triumph Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 2.68 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 14 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
62.56 | 62.25 | 0.50 |
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Triumph Financial Hype Timeline
Triumph Financial is at this time traded for 62.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.31, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Triumph is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 62.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.5%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Triumph Financial is about 3604.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 62.53. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.71. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Triumph Financial had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Triumph Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Triumph Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Triumph Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Triumph Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Triumph Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Triumph Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Triumph Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Triumph price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triumph using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triumph charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Triumph Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Triumph Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Triumph Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Triumph Financial based on analysis of Triumph Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Triumph Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Triumph Financial's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.002689 | 0.001723 | 0.001515 | 0.001839 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.37 | 3.94 | 4.34 | 2.69 |
Story Coverage note for Triumph Financial
The number of cover stories for Triumph Financial depends on current market conditions and Triumph Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Triumph Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Triumph Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Triumph Financial Short Properties
Triumph Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Triumph Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Triumph Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Triumph Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triumph Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 416.9 M |
Check out Triumph Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Triumph Stock, please use our How to Invest in Triumph Financial guide.You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triumph Financial. If investors know Triumph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triumph Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.875 | Earnings Share 0.44 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.078 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Triumph Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triumph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triumph Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triumph Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triumph Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triumph Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triumph Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triumph Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triumph Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.