1st Source Stock Price Prediction
| SRCE Stock | USD 63.50 0.05 0.08% |
Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.274 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.4267 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.96 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.9733 | Wall Street Target Price 69 |
Using 1st Source hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of 1st Source from the perspective of 1st Source response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards 1st Source using 1st Source's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards 1st using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of 1st Source's stock price.
1st Source Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in 1st Source's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards 1st. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of 1st Source stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 61.2466 | Short Percent 0.0135 | Short Ratio 2.83 | Shares Short Prior Month 206.6 K | 50 Day MA 61.9558 |
1st Source Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to 1st Source's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in 1st. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding 1st can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around 1st Source. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of 1st Source's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about 1st Source.
1st Source Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
1st Source's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of 1st Source stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if 1st Source's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that 1st Source stock will not fluctuate a lot when 1st Source's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in 1st Source to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying 1st because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
1st Source after-hype prediction price | USD 63.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current 1st contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that 1st Source will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2025-10-17 option contract. With 1st Source trading at USD 63.5, that is roughly USD 0.0151 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating 1st Source's daily price movement you should consider acquiring 1st Source options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out 1st Source Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 1st Source's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
1st Source After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of 1st Source at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 1st Source or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of 1st Source, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
1st Source Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting 1st Source's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on 1st Source's historical news coverage. 1st Source's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 62.26 and 65.22, respectively. We have considered 1st Source's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1st Source is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of 1st Source is based on 3 months time horizon.
1st Source Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as 1st Source is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 1st Source backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 1st Source, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.47 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
63.50 | 63.74 | 0.30 |
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1st Source Hype Timeline
1st Source is at this time traded for 63.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. 1st is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 63.74 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 168.97%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.3%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on 1st Source is about 2261.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.49. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 570.32 M. Net Income was 132.62 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 388.84 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out 1st Source Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.1st Source Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to 1st Source's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 1st Source's future price movements. Getting to know how 1st Source's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 1st Source may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp | 0.02 | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.08 | 4.12 | (3.27) | 12.65 | |
| FCCO | First Community | (0.41) | 7 per month | 0.80 | 0.11 | 2.96 | (1.58) | 9.17 | |
| LNKB | LINKBANCORP | (0.13) | 7 per month | 1.68 | 0.06 | 3.84 | (3.17) | 8.54 | |
| FIDS | FNB Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.48 | (2.16) | 10.84 | |
| MIFF | Mifflinburg Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.50 | (0) | 3.12 | (2.97) | 7.88 | |
| CEFC | Commercial National Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | (0) | 1.97 | (1.99) | 8.18 | |
| APLO | Apollo Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.42 | (1.40) | 5.29 | |
| KPCPY | Kasikornbank Public Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.58 | 0.04 | 6.46 | (4.56) | 19.00 |
1st Source Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine 1st price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 1st using various technical indicators. When you analyze 1st charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About 1st Source Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of 1st Source stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as 1st Source, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of 1st Source based on analysis of 1st Source hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to 1st Source's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to 1st Source's related companies. | 2021 | 2024 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 1.36 | 1.29 | Dividend Yield | 0.0252 | 0.0248 |
Story Coverage note for 1st Source
The number of cover stories for 1st Source depends on current market conditions and 1st Source's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that 1st Source is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about 1st Source's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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1st Source Short Properties
1st Source's future price predictability will typically decrease when 1st Source's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of 1st Source often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential 1st Source's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. 1st Source's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Complementary Tools for 1st Stock analysis
When running 1st Source's price analysis, check to measure 1st Source's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy 1st Source is operating at the current time. Most of 1st Source's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of 1st Source's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move 1st Source's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of 1st Source to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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