Select Medical Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| SEM Stock | USD 14.38 0.39 2.64% |
Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2487 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.0984 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.2628 | Wall Street Target Price 20.5 |
Using Select Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Select Medical Holdings from the perspective of Select Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Select Medical using Select Medical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Select using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Select Medical's stock price.
Select Medical Short Interest
An investor who is long Select Medical may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Select Medical and may potentially protect profits, hedge Select Medical with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 17.5845 | Short Percent 0.0583 | Short Ratio 2.69 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.1 M | 50 Day MA 14.9898 |
Select Medical Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Select Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Select. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Select can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Select Medical Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Select Medical's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Select Medical.
Select Medical Implied Volatility | 0.99 |
Select Medical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Select Medical Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Select Medical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Select Medical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Select Medical's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Select Medical to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Select because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Select Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 14.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Select contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Select Medical Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0619% per day over the life of the 2025-09-19 option contract. With Select Medical trading at USD 14.38, that is roughly USD 0.008898 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Select Medical's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Select Medical Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Select Medical Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Select Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Select Medical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Select Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Select Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Select Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Select Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Select Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Select Medical's historical news coverage. Select Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.05 and 17.71, respectively. We have considered Select Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Select Medical is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Select Medical Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Select Medical Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Select Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Select Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Select Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 3.34 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.38 | 14.38 | 0.00 |
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Select Medical Hype Timeline
On the 21st of July Select Medical Holdings is traded for 14.38. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.06. Select is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Select Medical is about 526.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.32. About 14.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.08. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Select Medical Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.37. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of May 2025. The firm had 1856:1000 split on the 26th of November 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Select Medical Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Select Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Select Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Select Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Select Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Select Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ENSG | The Ensign Group | (2.69) | 10 per month | 1.67 | (0.03) | 2.01 | (2.07) | 6.71 | |
| EHC | Encompass Health Corp | (1.81) | 9 per month | 2.67 | (0.01) | 1.77 | (1.55) | 22.14 | |
| INNV | InnovAge Holding Corp | (0.19) | 10 per month | 3.28 | 0.11 | 7.47 | (5.87) | 20.89 | |
| EHAB | Enhabit | 0.1 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.55 | (4.38) | 36.43 | |
| PNTG | Pennant Group | (0.46) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.08 | (3.51) | 14.48 | |
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | (3.27) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.62 | (4.53) | 15.10 | |
| ADUS | Addus HomeCare | 0.01 | 12 per month | 1.73 | (0.03) | 3.03 | (2.43) | 8.57 | |
| NHC | National HealthCare | 1.92 | 8 per month | 1.63 | (0.02) | 2.61 | (2.22) | 11.82 | |
| MD | Mednax Inc | 0.68 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.93 | (3.84) | 19.73 |
Select Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Select price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Select using various technical indicators. When you analyze Select charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Select Medical Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Select Medical stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Select Medical Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Select Medical based on analysis of Select Medical hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Select Medical's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Select Medical's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0388 | 0.041 | 0.0275 | 0.0261 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 0.48 |
Story Coverage note for Select Medical
The number of cover stories for Select Medical depends on current market conditions and Select Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Select Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Select Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Select Medical Short Properties
Select Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Select Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Select Medical Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Select Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Select Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 124.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.7 M |
Check out Select Medical Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Select Medical. If investors know Select will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Select Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Dividend Share 0.375 | Earnings Share 0.62 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.024 |
The market value of Select Medical Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Select that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Select Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Select Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Select Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Select Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Select Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Select Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Select Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.