Naked Wines Plc Stock Price Prediction
| MJWNY Stock | USD 2.52 0.00 0.00% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
27
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Naked Wines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Naked Wines plc from the perspective of Naked Wines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Naked Wines to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Naked because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Naked Wines after-hype prediction price | USD 2.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Naked |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Naked Wines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Naked Wines After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Naked Wines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Naked Wines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Naked Wines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Naked Wines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Naked Wines' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Naked Wines' historical news coverage. Naked Wines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.24 and 4.80, respectively. We have considered Naked Wines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Naked Wines is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Naked Wines plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Naked Wines Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Naked Wines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Naked Wines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Naked Wines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 2.28 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.52 | 2.52 | 0.00 |
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Naked Wines Hype Timeline
Naked Wines plc is now traded for 2.52. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.1. Naked is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.4%. %. The volatility of related hype on Naked Wines is about 912.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.62. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.65. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Naked Wines plc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be uncertain. Check out Naked Wines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Naked Wines Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Naked Wines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Naked Wines' future price movements. Getting to know how Naked Wines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Naked Wines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DEO | Diageo PLC ADR | (1.06) | 9 per month | 1.36 | 0.01 | 2.23 | (2.08) | 6.66 | |
| STZ | Constellation Brands Class | 1.93 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.73 | (2.88) | 7.41 | |
| BF-B | Brown Forman | (0.12) | 6 per month | 1.05 | 0.06 | 2.66 | (1.92) | 6.01 |
Naked Wines Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Naked price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Naked using various technical indicators. When you analyze Naked charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Naked Wines Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Naked Wines stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Naked Wines plc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Naked Wines based on analysis of Naked Wines hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Naked Wines's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Naked Wines's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Naked Wines
The number of cover stories for Naked Wines depends on current market conditions and Naked Wines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Naked Wines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Naked Wines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Naked Wines Short Properties
Naked Wines' future price predictability will typically decrease when Naked Wines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Naked Wines plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Naked Wines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Naked Wines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 73.4 M |
Additional Tools for Naked Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Naked Wines' price analysis, check to measure Naked Wines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Naked Wines is operating at the current time. Most of Naked Wines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Naked Wines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Naked Wines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Naked Wines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.