Lgi Homes Stock Price Prediction
| LGIH Stock | USD 102.80 1.40 1.34% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
52
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.102 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.86 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.84 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.57 | Wall Street Target Price 121.25 |
Using LGI Homes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LGI Homes from the perspective of LGI Homes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
LGI Homes Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to LGI Homes' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in LGI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding LGI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around LGI Homes. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of LGI Homes' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about LGI Homes.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in LGI Homes to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying LGI because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
LGI Homes after-hype prediction price | USD 102.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
LGI |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LGI Homes' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LGI Homes After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LGI Homes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LGI Homes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LGI Homes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LGI Homes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LGI Homes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LGI Homes' historical news coverage. LGI Homes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 100.37 and 105.39, respectively. We have considered LGI Homes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LGI Homes is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LGI Homes is based on 3 months time horizon.
LGI Homes Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LGI Homes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LGI Homes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LGI Homes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 2.51 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
102.80 | 102.88 | 0.08 |
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LGI Homes Hype Timeline
LGI Homes is now traded for 102.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. LGI is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 102.88 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on LGI Homes is about 225.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 102.58. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.36 B. Net Income was 199.23 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 653.47 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out LGI Homes Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.LGI Homes Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LGI Homes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LGI Homes' future price movements. Getting to know how LGI Homes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LGI Homes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MHO | MI Homes | (4.90) | 7 per month | 2.55 | (0.03) | 4.51 | (4.51) | 11.04 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | 0.29 | 10 per month | 2.03 | 0 | 3.10 | (4.14) | 9.89 | |
| TPH | TRI Pointe Homes | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.86 | (3.73) | 10.14 | |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | (0.47) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.48 | (5.16) | 16.10 | |
| CCS | Century Communities | 0.51 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.75 | (4.05) | 13.05 | |
| CVCO | Cavco Industries | (4.47) | 9 per month | 1.98 | (0.01) | 3.88 | (3.92) | 9.71 | |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corp | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.57 | (3.12) | 9.53 | |
| MTH | Meritage | (0.50) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.09 | (4.85) | 11.87 | |
| KBH | KB Home | (0.40) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.43 | (3.66) | 10.31 |
LGI Homes Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LGI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LGI using various technical indicators. When you analyze LGI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About LGI Homes Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of LGI Homes stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as LGI Homes, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of LGI Homes based on analysis of LGI Homes hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to LGI Homes's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to LGI Homes's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0284 | 0.0468 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.33 | 1.3 |
Story Coverage note for LGI Homes
The number of cover stories for LGI Homes depends on current market conditions and LGI Homes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LGI Homes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LGI Homes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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LGI Homes Short Properties
LGI Homes' future price predictability will typically decrease when LGI Homes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LGI Homes often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LGI Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LGI Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49 M |
Complementary Tools for LGI Stock analysis
When running LGI Homes' price analysis, check to measure LGI Homes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LGI Homes is operating at the current time. Most of LGI Homes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LGI Homes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LGI Homes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LGI Homes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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