Illinois Tool Works Stock Price Prediction
| ITW Stock | USD 269.43 3.05 1.14% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
68
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.533 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.52 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.2786 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.7391 | Wall Street Target Price 257.5784 |
Using Illinois Tool hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Illinois Tool Works from the perspective of Illinois Tool response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Illinois Tool using Illinois Tool's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Illinois using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Illinois Tool's stock price.
Illinois Tool Short Interest
An investor who is long Illinois Tool may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Illinois Tool and may potentially protect profits, hedge Illinois Tool with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 252.209 | Short Percent 0.0181 | Short Ratio 6.76 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.7 M | 50 Day MA 261.3136 |
Illinois Tool Works Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Illinois Tool's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Illinois. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Illinois can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Illinois Tool Works. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Illinois Tool's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Illinois Tool.
Illinois Tool Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
Illinois Tool's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Illinois Tool Works stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Illinois Tool's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Illinois Tool stock will not fluctuate a lot when Illinois Tool's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Illinois Tool to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Illinois because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Illinois Tool after-hype prediction price | USD 266.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Illinois contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Illinois Tool Works will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Illinois Tool trading at USD 269.43, that is roughly USD 0.0859 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Illinois Tool's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Illinois Tool Works options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Illinois |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Illinois Tool's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Illinois Tool After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Illinois Tool at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Illinois Tool or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Illinois Tool, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Illinois Tool Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Illinois Tool's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Illinois Tool's historical news coverage. Illinois Tool's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 265.59 and 267.61, respectively. We have considered Illinois Tool's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Illinois Tool is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Illinois Tool Works is based on 3 months time horizon.
Illinois Tool Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Illinois Tool is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Illinois Tool backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Illinois Tool, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.01 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
269.43 | 266.60 | 0.08 |
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Illinois Tool Hype Timeline
On the 21st of November Illinois Tool Works is traded for 269.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Illinois is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 266.6 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 58.72%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Illinois Tool is about 9181.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 269.43. The company reported the last year's revenue of 16.11 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.96 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 6.5 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Illinois Tool Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Illinois Tool Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Illinois Tool's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Illinois Tool's future price movements. Getting to know how Illinois Tool's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Illinois Tool may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SCRYX | Small Cap Core | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | 0.01 | 2.39 | (1.69) | 7.88 | |
| FRHC | Freedom Holding Corp | 0.57 | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.24 | 4.02 | (2.40) | 7.38 | |
| GFL | Gfl Environmental Holdings | (0.41) | 8 per month | 1.36 | 0.02 | 2.97 | (2.29) | 7.37 | |
| RGAGX | Growth Fund Of | (0.97) | 1 per month | 0.91 | 0.02 | 1.34 | (1.66) | 4.40 | |
| SVII | Spring Valley Acquisition | (0.06) | 2 per month | 0.39 | (0.17) | 0.44 | (0.53) | 4.77 | |
| GFI | Gold Fields Ltd | (0.18) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.52 | (5.41) | 14.93 | |
| KNF | Knife River | 1.35 | 8 per month | 1.88 | 0.15 | 4.01 | (2.46) | 12.96 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 1.68 | (2.13) | 4.89 | |
| WES | Western Midstream Partners | (0.40) | 10 per month | 1.39 | (0.04) | 1.94 | (2.16) | 5.82 | |
| AMYZF | American Manganese | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.41 | (8.75) | 21.04 |
Illinois Tool Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Illinois price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Illinois using various technical indicators. When you analyze Illinois charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Illinois Tool Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Illinois Tool stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Illinois Tool Works, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Illinois Tool based on analysis of Illinois Tool hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Illinois Tool's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Illinois Tool's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0188 | 0.0226 | 0.0204 | 0.0135 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.38 | 4.28 | 4.92 | 5.17 |
Story Coverage note for Illinois Tool
The number of cover stories for Illinois Tool depends on current market conditions and Illinois Tool's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Illinois Tool is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Illinois Tool's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Illinois Tool Short Properties
Illinois Tool's future price predictability will typically decrease when Illinois Tool's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Illinois Tool Works often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Illinois Tool's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Illinois Tool's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 303.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Additional Tools for Illinois Stock Analysis
When running Illinois Tool's price analysis, check to measure Illinois Tool's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Illinois Tool is operating at the current time. Most of Illinois Tool's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Illinois Tool's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Illinois Tool's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Illinois Tool to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.