First Bank Stock Price Prediction
FRBA Stock | USD 15.45 0.11 0.71% |
Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.43 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.7067 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.8867 | Wall Street Target Price 19 |
Using First Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Bank from the perspective of First Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Bank using First Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Bank's stock price.
First Bank Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in First Bank's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards First. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of First Bank stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 15.0639 | Short Percent 0.0041 | Short Ratio 2 | Shares Short Prior Month 93.7 K | 50 Day MA 16.1308 |
First Bank Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to First Bank's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Bank. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of First Bank's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about First Bank.
First Bank Implied Volatility | 1.19 |
First Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Bank's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Bank to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 15.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Bank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0744% per day over the life of the 2026-01-16 option contract. With First Bank trading at USD 15.45, that is roughly USD 0.0115 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Bank's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Bank options at the current volatility level of 1.19%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out First Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. First Bank After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
First Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Bank's historical news coverage. First Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.01 and 16.89, respectively. We have considered First Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Bank Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.45 | 15.45 | 0.00 |
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First Bank Hype Timeline
First Bank is currently traded for 15.45. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. First is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Bank is about 25025.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.45. About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.93. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Bank last dividend was issued on the 8th of August 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out First Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.First Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how First Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
CWBC | Community West Bancshares | (0.17) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.79 | (2.09) | 7.91 | |
ECBK | ECB Bancorp | (0.1) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.81 | (2.01) | 7.19 | |
CBFV | CB Financial Services | 0.24 | 10 per month | 1.30 | 0.07 | 3.39 | (2.68) | 13.07 | |
FNWB | First Northwest Bancorp | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.53 | (0.01) | 3.78 | (3.32) | 9.66 | |
FSBW | FS Bancorp | (0.15) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.58 | (2.71) | 9.00 | |
FGBI | First Guaranty Bancshares | (0.13) | 9 per month | 1.95 | 0 | 3.75 | (3.14) | 12.66 | |
FMBH | First Mid Illinois | 0.38 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.56 | (2.00) | 8.47 |
First Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About First Bank Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First Bank stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Bank, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Bank based on analysis of First Bank hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Bank's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Bank's related companies. 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0165 | 0.0171 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.86 | 1.54 |
Story Coverage note for First Bank
The number of cover stories for First Bank depends on current market conditions and First Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Bank Short Properties
First Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.3 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 326.1 M |
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Bank's price analysis, check to measure First Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Bank is operating at the current time. Most of First Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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