Amtrust Financial Services Stock Performance

AFSIC Stock  USD 14.42  0.83  5.44%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0785, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning AmTrust Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, AmTrust Financial is likely to outperform the market. At this point, AmTrust Financial has a negative expected return of -0.0736%. Please make sure to confirm AmTrust Financial's accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the potential upside and day median price , to decide if AmTrust Financial performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days AmTrust Financial Services has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of rather sound forward indicators, AmTrust Financial is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price tumult, may contribute to shorter-term losses for the shareholders. ...more
Begin Period Cash Flow567.8 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities633.7 M
  

AmTrust Financial Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,538  in AmTrust Financial Services on October 31, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (96.00) from holding AmTrust Financial Services or give up 6.24% of portfolio value over 90 days. AmTrust Financial Services is currently producing negative expected returns and takes up 2.5554% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 22% of traded pink sheets are less volatile than AmTrust, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days horizon AmTrust Financial is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 3.41 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.03 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

AmTrust Financial Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of AmTrust Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 14.42 90 days 14.42 
about 90.07
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AmTrust Financial to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 90.07 (This AmTrust Financial Services probability density function shows the probability of AmTrust Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon AmTrust Financial Services has a beta of -0.0785. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding AmTrust Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, AmTrust Financial Services is likely to outperform the market. Additionally AmTrust Financial Services has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   AmTrust Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AmTrust Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmTrust Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.8614.4216.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.8312.3914.95
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.9014.4617.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
14.1414.9115.68
Details

AmTrust Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AmTrust Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AmTrust Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AmTrust Financial Services, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AmTrust Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.08
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.08
σ
Overall volatility
0.35
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

AmTrust Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AmTrust Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AmTrust Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AmTrust Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
AmTrust Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the revenue of 5.82 B. Net Loss for the year was (348.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 872.65 M.
AmTrust Financial Services has accumulated about 756.1 M in cash with (375.3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.82.

AmTrust Financial Fundamentals Growth

AmTrust Pink Sheet prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of AmTrust Financial, and AmTrust Financial fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on AmTrust Pink Sheet performance.

About AmTrust Financial Performance

By analyzing AmTrust Financial's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into AmTrust Financial's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if AmTrust Financial has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if AmTrust Financial has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. operates as a property and casualty company. It was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Amtrust Financial operates under InsuranceProperty Casualty classification in the United States and is traded on OTC Exchange. It employs 9300 people.

Things to note about AmTrust Financial performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about AmTrust Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Pink Sheet alerts and notifications screener for AmTrust Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AmTrust Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
AmTrust Financial has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the revenue of 5.82 B. Net Loss for the year was (348.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 872.65 M.
AmTrust Financial Services has accumulated about 756.1 M in cash with (375.3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.82.
Evaluating AmTrust Financial's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate AmTrust Financial's pink sheet performance include:
  • Analyzing AmTrust Financial's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether AmTrust Financial's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining AmTrust Financial's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating AmTrust Financial's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of AmTrust Financial's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of AmTrust Financial's pink sheet. These opinions can provide insight into AmTrust Financial's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating AmTrust Financial's pink sheet performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact AmTrust Financial's pink sheet market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running AmTrust Financial's price analysis, check to measure AmTrust Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AmTrust Financial is operating at the current time. Most of AmTrust Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AmTrust Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AmTrust Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AmTrust Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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