United Fire Group Stock Market Value
| UFCS Stock | USD 27.43 2.01 7.91% |
| Symbol | United |
United Fire Group Price To Book Ratio
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Fire. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Fire listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.04 | Dividend Share 0.64 | Earnings Share 1.95 | Revenue Per Share 47.73 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.179 |
The market value of United Fire Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Fire's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Fire's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Fire's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Fire's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Fire's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Fire is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Fire's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
United Fire 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to United Fire's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of United Fire.
| 02/28/2023 |
| 11/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in United Fire on February 28, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United Fire Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in United Fire over 630 days. United Fire is related to or competes with SEI Investments, US Global, Ispire Technology, Compania Cervecerias, Ambev SA, Waste Management, and Philip Morris. United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance for individuals and bu... More
United Fire Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure United Fire's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess United Fire Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1351 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 28.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.48) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.64 |
United Fire Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for United Fire's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as United Fire's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use United Fire historical prices to predict the future United Fire's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1316 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2717 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1405 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2932 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1761 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Fire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United Fire Group Backtested Returns
United Fire appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. United Fire Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.16, which indicates the firm had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting United Fire's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.57% is justified by implied risk. Please review United Fire's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1316, semi deviation of 1.16, and Coefficient Of Variation of 609.83 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, United Fire holds a performance score of 12. The entity has a beta of 3.21, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, United Fire will likely underperform. Please check United Fire's semi variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether United Fire's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.34 |
Below average predictability
United Fire Group has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United Fire time series from 28th of February 2023 to 9th of January 2024 and 9th of January 2024 to 19th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United Fire Group price movement. The serial correlation of 0.34 indicates that nearly 34.0% of current United Fire price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.34 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.31 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.91 |
United Fire Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is United Fire stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting United Fire's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of United Fire returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that United Fire has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
United Fire regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If United Fire stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if United Fire stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in United Fire stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
United Fire Lagged Returns
When evaluating United Fire's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of United Fire stock have on its future price. United Fire autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, United Fire autocorrelation shows the relationship between United Fire stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in United Fire Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Fire's price analysis, check to measure United Fire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Fire is operating at the current time. Most of United Fire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Fire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Fire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Fire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.