Tri City Bankshares Stock Market Value
| TRCY Stock | USD 15.38 0.06 0.39% |
| Symbol | Tri |
Tri City 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tri City's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tri City.
| 05/05/2025 |
| 08/03/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tri City on May 5, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tri City Bankshares or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tri City over 90 days. Tri City is related to or competes with Southern Michigan, United Bancorporation, Wintrust Financial, Associated Banc, QNB Corp, Taylor Calvin, and Croghan Bancshares. Tri City Bankshares Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services primarily in S... More
Tri City Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tri City's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tri City Bankshares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9458 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0545 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.13 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.2 |
Tri City Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tri City's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tri City's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tri City historical prices to predict the future Tri City's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.113 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1656 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.0008) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0781 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.57 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tri City's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tri City Bankshares Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Tri Pink Sheet to be very steady. Tri City Bankshares owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.14, which indicates the firm had a 0.14 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Tri City Bankshares, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Tri City's Coefficient Of Variation of 723.88, risk adjusted performance of 0.113, and Semi Deviation of 0.527 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. Tri City has a performance score of 10 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.11, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Tri City's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Tri City is expected to be smaller as well. Tri City Bankshares right now has a risk of 1.36%. Please validate Tri City maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the skewness and price action indicator , to decide if Tri City will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.14 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Tri City Bankshares has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tri City time series from 5th of May 2025 to 19th of June 2025 and 19th of June 2025 to 3rd of August 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tri City Bankshares price movement. The serial correlation of -0.14 indicates that less than 14.0% of current Tri City price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.14 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.27 |
Tri City Bankshares lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tri City pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tri City's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tri City returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tri City has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tri City regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tri City pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tri City pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tri City pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tri City Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tri City's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tri City pink sheet have on its future price. Tri City autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tri City autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tri City pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tri City Bankshares.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Tri Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Tri City's price analysis, check to measure Tri City's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tri City is operating at the current time. Most of Tri City's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tri City's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tri City's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tri City to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.