Smith Micro Software Stock Market Value
| SMSI Stock | USD 0.79 0.04 5.33% |
| Symbol | Smith |
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Micro. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Smith Micro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Smith Micro Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smith that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smith Micro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smith Micro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Smith Micro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smith Micro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Micro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Micro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Micro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Smith Micro 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Smith Micro's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Smith Micro.
| 04/28/2025 |
| 07/27/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Smith Micro on April 28, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Smith Micro Software or generate 0.0% return on investment in Smith Micro over 90 days. Smith Micro is related to or competes with Research Solutions, Intellicheck Mobilisa, Synchronoss Technologies, Giga Media, and Lantronix. Smith Micro Software, Inc. develops and sells software to enhance the mobile experience to wireless and cable service pr... More
Smith Micro Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Smith Micro's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Smith Micro Software upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 32.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.57) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.65 |
Smith Micro Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Smith Micro's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Smith Micro's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Smith Micro historical prices to predict the future Smith Micro's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.83) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3131 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smith Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Smith Micro Software Backtested Returns
Smith Micro Software owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0728, which indicates the firm had a -0.0728 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Smith Micro Software exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Smith Micro's Variance of 30.4, risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Coefficient Of Variation of (1,374) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -1.31, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Smith Micro are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Smith Micro is expected to outperform it. At this point, Smith Micro Software has a negative expected return of -0.4%. Please make sure to validate Smith Micro's potential upside, as well as the relationship between the rate of daily change and period momentum indicator , to decide if Smith Micro Software performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.1 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Smith Micro Software has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Smith Micro time series from 28th of April 2025 to 12th of June 2025 and 12th of June 2025 to 27th of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Smith Micro Software price movement. The serial correlation of -0.1 indicates that less than 10.0% of current Smith Micro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.1 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Smith Micro Software lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Smith Micro stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Smith Micro's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Smith Micro returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Smith Micro has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Smith Micro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Smith Micro stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Smith Micro stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Smith Micro stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Smith Micro Lagged Returns
When evaluating Smith Micro's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Smith Micro stock have on its future price. Smith Micro autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Smith Micro autocorrelation shows the relationship between Smith Micro stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Smith Micro Software.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out Smith Micro Correlation, Smith Micro Volatility and Smith Micro Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Smith Micro. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Smith Micro technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.