Civic Market Value
| CVC Crypto | USD 0.12 0.01 7.69% |
| Symbol | Civic |
Civic 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Civic's crypto coin what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Civic.
| 10/03/2024 |
| 11/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Civic on October 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Civic or generate 0.0% return on investment in Civic over 30 days. Civic is related to or competes with Solana, XRP, Toncoin, Staked Ether, Sui, TRON, and Avalanche. Civic is peer-to-peer digital currency powered by the Blockchain technology.
Civic Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Civic's crypto coin current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Civic upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.9 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0779 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 46.15 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.69) | |||
| Potential Upside | 11.71 |
Civic Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Civic's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Civic's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Civic historical prices to predict the future Civic's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0752 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5705 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0896 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0928 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.02 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Civic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Civic Backtested Returns
Civic appears to be unusually volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Civic secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which signifies that digital coin had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Civic's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.8% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Civic's Downside Deviation of 5.9, risk adjusted performance of 0.0752, and Mean Deviation of 4.09 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The crypto shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.59, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Civic's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Civic is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.76 |
Good predictability
Civic has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Civic time series from 3rd of October 2024 to 18th of October 2024 and 18th of October 2024 to 2nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Civic price movement. The serial correlation of 0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current Civic price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.76 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.64 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Civic lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Civic crypto coin's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Civic's crypto coin expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Civic returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Civic has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the crypto coin is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Civic regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Civic crypto coin is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Civic crypto coin is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Civic crypto coin over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Civic Lagged Returns
When evaluating Civic's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Civic crypto coin have on its future price. Civic autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Civic autocorrelation shows the relationship between Civic crypto coin current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Civic.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out Civic Correlation, Civic Volatility and Investing Opportunities module to complement your research on Civic. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Civic technical crypto coin analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, crypto market cycles, or different charting patterns.