In April this year, Bitcoin saw its fourth halving event, where the reward for mining Bitcoin is halved. Following the previous two halvings, BTC prices saw gains in the two months following, and many commentators and investors expected similar price movements this time around.
BTC cost approximately $65,000 at the time of the halving and was approximately the same price two months later, although it did briefly reach $68,000 on October 20, six months after the halving.
Bitcoin Evolution
Bitcoin has evolved over the past few years, especially over the past 12 months. It has become more widely accepted by businesses, can be spent at more online stores than ever before, and has become especially popular at crypto casinos, as you can see from this updated list for 2024.
Poker expert Liliana Costache points to the anonymity, security, and fast transactions of cryptocurrency as the primary reasons for its popularity within the online gambling sector.
It has taken some time to get to this position, however. Following its launch in 2009, Bitcoin was used primarily by early crypto enthusiasts and the public had yet to hear of the digital currency.
By the time of its first halving event in 2012, its price was around $5, but this had risen to more than $6.50 two months later. In 2016, it cost $460, and two months later its price was $700. By the 2020 halving, one Bitcoin cost $7,000 and within two months, it had risen to more than $9,000.
Bitcoin's Flat performance
Three data points aren't a lot, especially considering Bitcoin saw price increases throughout the eight years between its first three halvings. So, while some commentators and investors were expecting big things from Bitcoin prices post-halving, some were a lot more cautious. Especially considering prices had increased from $20,000 in March last year to over $60,000 in March this year. During the same period, ETFs were launched, which saw an influx of institutional investment, too.
While optimistic holders were hoping to see Bitcoin prices rise from $65,000 to $80,000 or more, this increase never materialized.
Bitcoin's price at the time of the halving was $64,000 and over the next two months, it was ranging between a low of $58,000 and a high of $71,000. After the two months had passed, BTC continued trading in a similar pattern but ranging slightly down towards a low of $54,000 although, since September, when it reached a 6-month low of $54,000, prices have been on the increase and BTC could be gearing up to challenge $70,000 resistance again in the coming weeks.
Trading Volume Trends
It is also worth looking at trading volume. When the most recent halving event took place, the equivalent of just over 70,000 Bitcoins were traded over the week. Two months later, trading volume was at around 60,000 for the week. Currently, trading volume is picking up after a September low of 34,000 coins and sitting at 70,000 coins once again.
A More Mature Market
The market has matured in the past four years. In 2020, and certainly in earlier halving events, any mention of Bitcoin in the news led to considerable price swings. Now, thanks at least partially to institutional money from the ETFs, prices are less prone to swings in quite the same way. A halving event simply isn't as newsworthy as it once was and, therefore, it is less likely to cause the same price swings it would have in the past.
More Mature Investors
Investors are different, too. It was professional, experienced investors who warned the halving event was unlikely to yield the same results as in the past. Which suggests, they were less likely to trade in and out of Bitcoin due to the event.
Market Sentiment Changed
Market sentiment was also different. In the past, the Bitcoin halving event was viewed as having the potential to push Bitcoin prices up rapidly because it effectively reduced ongoing supply levels. While this halving event also led to a reduction in mining rewards, the market was more skeptical about the impact it would have on prices, and this skepticism certainly played out.
Bitcoin Mining
Bitcoin mining has changed in other ways, too. Rather than a massive sprawling network of individual users, the mining industry has more mining companies involved. Many mining farms have been established in areas where electricity is cheap, as this is the single biggest cost involved in mining the cryptocurrency.
Alternatively, some farms use renewable energy sources derived from their own solar farms or wind turbines. For these miners, a halving event will cut profits, but these cuts must have been factored in previously. And the historically high prices of Bitcoin mean that it is still likely profitable enough that the companies will continue to mine.
Conclusion
The next halving event is due to take place in around April 2028. This gives the market another four years of maturation. Considering how far Bitcoin has come since 2020, it is difficult to predict exactly where Bitcoin will be, by then. If cryptocurrency becomes regulated, it may be better placed to rival fiat currencies, which means it will be less prone to dramatic price swings. But, whatever the market conditions, this year's flat response to the halving event may be enough to prevent predictions of massive price increases.