When it comes to investing, timing can be everything. If you're contemplating boosting your investment in Advance Auto Parts (AAP), it's crucial to weigh the current market sentiment and analyst insights. The stock is currently valued at around $48.78, with analysts offering a mixed bag of opinions. The highest target price sits at $49.95, while the lowest is $40.95, reflecting a cautious outlook. With only one strong buy and a consensus leaning towards hold, it's clear that the market is taking a wait-and-see approach. The possible upside price of $59.11 suggests potential gains, but the downside risk to $43.3 cannot be ignored. As the fiscal year wraps up in December, investors should keep an eye on the company's performance metrics and industry trends in the auto parts sector to make informed decisions. Our analysis tools for Advance Auto Parts enable investors to assess daily demand, supply, volume, trends, and price fluctuations to gauge its true value. By employing various techniques grounded in popular technical indicators, we aim to determine the intrinsic worth of Advance. In this article, we'll explore why the company still has the potential to achieve higher-than-average margins and maintain positive cash flow.
The successful prediction of Advance Auto
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as Advance Auto Parts, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of Advance Auto based on Advance Auto hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Advance Auto's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to Advance Auto's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project Advance expected Price
Advance Auto technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Advance Auto technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Advance Auto trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...Advance Auto Gross Profit
Advance Auto Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Advance Auto previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Advance Auto Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Advance Auto's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Breaking down Advance Auto Indicators
The entity reported the last year's revenue of 9.09
B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (586.96
M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.75
B.
Total Revenue Breakdown
Advance Auto Total Revenue yearly trend continues to be relatively stable with very little volatility. Total Revenue is likely to drop to about 7.3
B. Total Revenue usually refers to the total amount of income generated by the sale of goods or services related to the company's primary operations. At this time, Advance Auto's Total Revenue is relatively stable compared to the past year.
| 2018 | 9.58 Billion |
| 2019 | 9.71 Billion |
| 2020 | 10.11 Billion |
| 2021 | 11 Billion |
| 2022 | 11.15 Billion |
| 2023 | 11.29 Billion |
| 2024 | 9.09 Billion |
| 2025 | 7.26 Billion |
Warren Buffett once said, "Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." This sentiment is particularly relevant for investors considering increasing their stake in Advance Auto Parts (AAP). Despite its current valuation of $4.91 billion and a market capitalization of $2.92 billion, AAP faces challenges with a probability of bankruptcy at 37.64%. The company's current ratio of 1.13X suggests a moderate ability to cover short-term liabilities, but its return on equity of 0.24 indicates a struggle to generate profits from shareholders' equity. With a target price of $45, investors should weigh the potential upside of 7.16% against these financial metrics before making a decision.
Will Advance pull back in June 2025?
Advance Auto Parts has been performing well, boasting a Jensen Alpha of 0.52. This figure indicates that the stock has exceeded its expected returns, given its risk level. Such a positive alpha suggests effective management and value creation beyond traditional expectations. However, as we approach June 2025, it's important for investors to assess whether this trend will continue. Factors like market conditions, competition, and company strategies will be key in determining if the stock can sustain its momentum or face a downturn.
As of May 27th, the stock shows a mean deviation of 3.66, a risk-adjusted performance of 0.0953, and a downside deviation of 4.32. Technical analysis of Advance Auto Parts can help investors use historical prices and volume patterns to predict future price movements.As we look at Advance Auto Parts, the stock's potential for recovery in June seems to be a mixed bag. With an analyst overall consensus of "Hold" and a possible upside price of 59.11, there's a cautious optimism surrounding its performance. However, the analyst target price estimated value of 45 suggests that expectations are tempered. While there is a single strong buy recommendation, the majority of analysts are taking a more conservative stance, with 23 holds and 2 sells. Investors should weigh these insights carefully, considering both the potential rewards and the risks involved in this investment..
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Ellen Johnson is a Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Ellen covers public companies in North America, focusing primarily on valuation and volatility. Six years of experience in predictive investment analytics and risk management.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Advance Auto Parts. Please refer to our
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