Old Dominion Freight Stock Beneish M Score

ODFL Stock  USD 220.25  1.86  0.85%   
This module uses fundamental data of Old Dominion to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Old Dominion M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out Old Dominion Piotroski F Score and Old Dominion Altman Z Score analysis.
  
At this time, Old Dominion's Long Term Debt is quite stable compared to the past year. Long Term Debt Total is expected to rise to about 96.5 M this year, although the value of Net Debt is projected to rise to (221.8 M). At this time, Old Dominion's Operating Cash Flow Per Share is quite stable compared to the past year. PB Ratio is expected to rise to 10.94 this year, although the value of Stock Based Compensation To Revenue will most likely fall to 0.
At this time, it appears that Old Dominion Freight is a possible manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Old Dominion's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Old Dominion executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Old Dominion's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.1
Beneish M Score - Possible Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables

1.0

Focus
Asset Quality

0.92

Focus
Expense Coverage

1.43

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

1.76

Focus
Accruals Factor

1.43

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

1.0

Focus
Net Sales Growth

1.05

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

1.07

Focus

Old Dominion Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Old Dominion's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Net Receivables646.1 M615.3 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Revenue6.2 B5.9 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Assets5.8 B5.5 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Current Assets1.2 B1.1 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Non Current Assets Total4.6 B4.4 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Property Plant Equipment4.5 B4.2 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Selling General Administrative305.9 M203.2 M
Way Up
Very volatile
Total Current Liabilities571.9 M544.7 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Non Current Liabilities Total745.4 M709.9 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Short Term Debt20.6 M23 M
Moderately Down
Slightly volatile
Long Term Debt104.6 M60 M
Way Up
Slightly volatile
Operating Income1.7 B1.6 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Total Cash From Operating Activities1.6 B1.6 B
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Gross Profit Margin0.620.3532
Way Up
Pretty Stable

Old Dominion Freight Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Old Dominion's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Old Dominion in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Old Dominion's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Old Dominion Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Accumulated Depreciation

(1.82 Billion)

The company's current value of Accumulated Depreciation is estimated at (1.82 Billion)

Old Dominion Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Old Dominion. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Net Receivables468.3M454.2M599.1M605.1M615.3M646.1M
Total Assets3.5B4.4B4.8B4.8B5.5B5.8B
Total Current Assets706.2M1.2B1.4B933.7M1.1B1.2B
Net Debt(145.3M)(301.5M)(362.6M)(86.3M)(233.4M)(221.8M)
Operating Income642.9M906.9M1.4B1.8B1.6B1.7B
Investments3.1M(330.2M)75.7M205.6M(659.8M)(626.8M)

Old Dominion ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Old Dominion's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Old Dominion's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environmental
Governance
Social

About Old Dominion Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Old Dominion Freight's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Old Dominion using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Old Dominion Freight based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

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When determining whether Old Dominion Freight is a strong investment it is important to analyze Old Dominion's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Old Dominion's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Old Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Cargo Ground Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Dominion. If investors know Old will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old Dominion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.07)
Dividend Share
0.98
Earnings Share
5.73
Revenue Per Share
27.363
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
The market value of Old Dominion Freight is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old Dominion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old Dominion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old Dominion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old Dominion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old Dominion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Old Dominion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old Dominion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.