Novagold Resources Stock Price Prediction
| NG Stock | USD 5.25 0.02 0.38% |
Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.34) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.18) | Wall Street Target Price 7.6139 |
Using NovaGold Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NovaGold Resources from the perspective of NovaGold Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NovaGold Resources using NovaGold Resources' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NovaGold using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NovaGold Resources' stock price.
NovaGold Resources Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in NovaGold Resources' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards NovaGold. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of NovaGold Resources stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 3.6526 | Short Percent 0.0441 | Short Ratio 3.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.1 M | 50 Day MA 4.4236 |
NovaGold Resources Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to NovaGold Resources' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NovaGold. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NovaGold can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NovaGold Resources. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of NovaGold Resources' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about NovaGold Resources.
NovaGold Resources Implied Volatility | 1.02 |
NovaGold Resources' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NovaGold Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NovaGold Resources' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NovaGold Resources stock will not fluctuate a lot when NovaGold Resources' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in NovaGold Resources to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying NovaGold because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
NovaGold Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 5.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current NovaGold contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that NovaGold Resources will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0638% per day over the life of the 2025-09-19 option contract. With NovaGold Resources trading at USD 5.25, that is roughly USD 0.003347 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating NovaGold Resources' daily price movement you should consider acquiring NovaGold Resources options at the current volatility level of 1.02%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out NovaGold Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. NovaGold Resources After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NovaGold Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NovaGold Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NovaGold Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NovaGold Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NovaGold Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NovaGold Resources' historical news coverage. NovaGold Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.44 and 10.08, respectively. We have considered NovaGold Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NovaGold Resources is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NovaGold Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
NovaGold Resources Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NovaGold Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NovaGold Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NovaGold Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 4.82 | 0.01 | 0.41 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.25 | 5.26 | 0.19 |
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NovaGold Resources Hype Timeline
As of July 30, 2025 NovaGold Resources is listed for 5.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.41. NovaGold is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.26 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.48%. The volatility of related hype on NovaGold Resources is about 560.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.66. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (45.62 M) with gross profit of 0. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out NovaGold Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.NovaGold Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NovaGold Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NovaGold Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how NovaGold Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NovaGold Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SA | Seabridge Gold | (0.24) | 9 per month | 2.17 | 0.09 | 4.20 | (3.83) | 12.56 | |
| EGO | Eldorado Gold Corp | (0.06) | 13 per month | 2.32 | (0.01) | 4.10 | (3.00) | 16.24 | |
| NGD | New Gold | (0.08) | 12 per month | 2.52 | 0.06 | 4.48 | (3.65) | 27.66 | |
| IAG | IAMGold | 0.11 | 9 per month | 3.44 | (0.05) | 4.75 | (4.98) | 17.03 | |
| AEM | Agnico Eagle Mines | 4.57 | 8 per month | 2.60 | (0.02) | 4.20 | (4.27) | 13.49 |
NovaGold Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NovaGold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NovaGold using various technical indicators. When you analyze NovaGold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About NovaGold Resources Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of NovaGold Resources stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as NovaGold Resources, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of NovaGold Resources based on analysis of NovaGold Resources hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to NovaGold Resources's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to NovaGold Resources's related companies.
Story Coverage note for NovaGold Resources
The number of cover stories for NovaGold Resources depends on current market conditions and NovaGold Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NovaGold Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NovaGold Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NovaGold Resources Short Properties
NovaGold Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when NovaGold Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NovaGold Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NovaGold Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NovaGold Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 334.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 101.1 M |
Complementary Tools for NovaGold Stock analysis
When running NovaGold Resources' price analysis, check to measure NovaGold Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NovaGold Resources is operating at the current time. Most of NovaGold Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NovaGold Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NovaGold Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NovaGold Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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