Cenovus Energy Stock Price Prediction
| CVE Stock | USD 16.05 0.07 0.44% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
39
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.57) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.34 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.4737 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.6366 | Wall Street Target Price 22.05 |
Using Cenovus Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cenovus Energy from the perspective of Cenovus Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Cenovus Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cenovus Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cenovus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cenovus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cenovus Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Cenovus Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Cenovus Energy.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cenovus Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cenovus because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cenovus Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 15.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Cenovus |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cenovus Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cenovus Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cenovus Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cenovus Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cenovus Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cenovus Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cenovus Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cenovus Energy's historical news coverage. Cenovus Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.15 and 17.83, respectively. We have considered Cenovus Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cenovus Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cenovus Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cenovus Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cenovus Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cenovus Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cenovus Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.85 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 10 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.05 | 15.99 | 0.06 |
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Cenovus Energy Hype Timeline
On the 20th of November Cenovus Energy is traded for 16.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Cenovus is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 15.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Cenovus Energy is about 493.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.13. The company reported the last year's revenue of 52.2 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 4.11 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Cenovus Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cenovus Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cenovus Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cenovus Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Cenovus Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cenovus Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VIVK | Vivakor | 0.05 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.41 | (7.10) | 21.99 | |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas | 0.70 | 10 per month | 1.32 | 0 | 2.14 | (1.75) | 8.65 |
Cenovus Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cenovus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cenovus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cenovus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Cenovus Energy Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cenovus Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cenovus Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cenovus Energy based on analysis of Cenovus Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cenovus Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cenovus Energy's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00671 | 0.0181 | 0.0242 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.64 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
Story Coverage note for Cenovus Energy
The number of cover stories for Cenovus Energy depends on current market conditions and Cenovus Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cenovus Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cenovus Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cenovus Energy Short Properties
Cenovus Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cenovus Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cenovus Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cenovus Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cenovus Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Complementary Tools for Cenovus Stock analysis
When running Cenovus Energy's price analysis, check to measure Cenovus Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cenovus Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Cenovus Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cenovus Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cenovus Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cenovus Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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