Blue Bird Corp Stock Price Prediction
| BLBD Stock | USD 50.53 0.74 1.44% |
Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Blue Bird hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Blue Bird Corp from the perspective of Blue Bird response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Blue Bird to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Blue because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Blue Bird after-hype prediction price | USD 50.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Blue Bird Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Blue Bird After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Blue Bird at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Blue Bird or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Blue Bird, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Blue Bird Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Blue Bird's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Blue Bird's historical news coverage. Blue Bird's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 48.13 and 52.47, respectively. We have considered Blue Bird's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Blue Bird is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Blue Bird Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Blue Bird Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Blue Bird is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blue Bird backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Blue Bird, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 2.18 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
50.53 | 50.30 | 0.46 |
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Blue Bird Hype Timeline
Blue Bird Corp is currently traded for 50.53. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Blue is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 50.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Blue Bird is about 1329.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.56. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.13. Blue Bird Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 10:1 split on the October 4, 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Blue Bird Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Blue Bird Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Blue Bird's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Blue Bird's future price movements. Getting to know how Blue Bird's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Blue Bird may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSNY | Polestar Automotive Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.14 | (6.67) | 30.14 | |
| AIN | Albany International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 4.02 | (3.76) | 16.04 | |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino Resort | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.66 | (2.31) | 6.16 | |
| MBC | MasterBrand | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.23 | (3.25) | 20.46 | |
| WEN | The Wendys Co | 0.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.56 | (2.80) | 10.19 | |
| TILE | Interface | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.74 | (0.03) | 3.30 | (2.51) | 11.21 | |
| PZZA | Papa Johns International | 1.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.72 | (5.07) | 19.69 | |
| ACVA | ACV Auctions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.09 | (5.01) | 43.71 | |
| MODG | Callaway Golf | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.90 | 0.08 | 6.52 | (4.94) | 23.39 | |
| CCS | Century Communities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.08 | (3.89) | 13.15 |
Blue Bird Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Blue price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Blue using various technical indicators. When you analyze Blue charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Blue Bird Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Blue Bird stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Blue Bird Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Blue Bird based on analysis of Blue Bird hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Blue Bird's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Blue Bird's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Blue Bird
The number of cover stories for Blue Bird depends on current market conditions and Blue Bird's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Blue Bird is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Blue Bird's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Blue Bird Short Properties
Blue Bird's future price predictability will typically decrease when Blue Bird's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Blue Bird Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Blue Bird's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blue Bird's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 229.3 M |
Complementary Tools for Blue Stock analysis
When running Blue Bird's price analysis, check to measure Blue Bird's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Bird is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Bird's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Bird's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Bird's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Bird to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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