VeriSign Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VRSN Stock | USD 181.22 1.20 0.66% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of VeriSign on the next trading day is expected to be 176.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 141.06. VeriSign Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although VeriSign's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of VeriSign's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of VeriSign fundamentals over time.
VeriSign |
Open Interest Against 2024-10-18 VeriSign Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast VeriSign's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in VeriSign's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for VeriSign stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current VeriSign's open interest, investors have to compare it to VeriSign's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of VeriSign is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in VeriSign. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Cash | First Reported 1998-03-31 | Previous Quarter 731.8 M | Current Value 252.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 418.8 M |
VeriSign Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of September
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VeriSign on the next trading day is expected to be 176.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.31, mean absolute percentage error of 9.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 141.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VeriSign Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VeriSign's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VeriSign Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VeriSign | VeriSign Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VeriSign Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VeriSign's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VeriSign's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 175.55 and 177.95, respectively. We have considered VeriSign's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VeriSign stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VeriSign stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.3194 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.3124 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 141.0584 |
Predictive Modules for VeriSign
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VeriSign. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VeriSign's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for VeriSign
For every potential investor in VeriSign, whether a beginner or expert, VeriSign's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VeriSign Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VeriSign. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VeriSign's price trends.VeriSign Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VeriSign stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VeriSign could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VeriSign by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VeriSign Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VeriSign's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VeriSign's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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VeriSign Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VeriSign stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VeriSign shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VeriSign stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VeriSign entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0174 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.38) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 181.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 181.33 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 3.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.77) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.20) |
VeriSign Risk Indicators
The analysis of VeriSign's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VeriSign's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting verisign stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8473 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Variance | 1.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with VeriSign
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if VeriSign position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in VeriSign will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against VeriSign Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to VeriSign could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace VeriSign when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back VeriSign - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling VeriSign to buy it.
The correlation of VeriSign is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as VeriSign moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if VeriSign moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for VeriSign can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in VeriSign Stock
When determining whether VeriSign offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of VeriSign's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Verisign Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Verisign Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VeriSign to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in VeriSign Stock, please use our How to Invest in VeriSign guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Internet Services & Infrastructure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of VeriSign. If investors know VeriSign will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about VeriSign listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.125 | Earnings Share 8.33 | Revenue Per Share 15.107 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 | Return On Assets 0.4068 |
The market value of VeriSign is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VeriSign that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VeriSign's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VeriSign's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VeriSign's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VeriSign's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VeriSign's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VeriSign is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VeriSign's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.