Virnetx Holding Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.05
| VHC Stock | USD 5.85 0.05 0.85% |
VirnetX |
VirnetX Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 0.05
The tendency of VirnetX Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.05 or more in 90 days |
| 5.85 | 90 days | 0.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VirnetX Holding to drop to $ 0.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This VirnetX Holding Corp probability density function shows the probability of VirnetX Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VirnetX Holding Corp price to stay between $ 0.05 and its current price of $5.85 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.15 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon VirnetX Holding has a beta of 0.16. This entails as returns on the market go up, VirnetX Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding VirnetX Holding Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally VirnetX Holding Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. VirnetX Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for VirnetX Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VirnetX Holding Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VirnetX Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VirnetX Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VirnetX Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VirnetX Holding Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VirnetX Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
VirnetX Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of VirnetX Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for VirnetX Holding Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| VirnetX Holding Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| VirnetX Holding Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 7 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (27.87 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 35 K. | |
| VirnetX Holding Corp has about 86.56 M in cash with (24.77 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.26. | |
| VirnetX Holding Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Kendall Larsen of 50000 shares of VirnetX Holding subject to Rule 16b-3 |
VirnetX Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of VirnetX Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential VirnetX Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. VirnetX Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 53.5 M |
VirnetX Holding Technical Analysis
VirnetX Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VirnetX Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VirnetX Holding Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing VirnetX Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VirnetX Holding Predictive Forecast Models
VirnetX Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many VirnetX Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VirnetX Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about VirnetX Holding Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about VirnetX Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for VirnetX Holding Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| VirnetX Holding Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| VirnetX Holding Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 7 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (27.87 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 35 K. | |
| VirnetX Holding Corp has about 86.56 M in cash with (24.77 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.26. | |
| VirnetX Holding Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Kendall Larsen of 50000 shares of VirnetX Holding subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out VirnetX Holding Backtesting, VirnetX Holding Valuation, VirnetX Holding Correlation, VirnetX Holding Hype Analysis, VirnetX Holding Volatility, VirnetX Holding History as well as VirnetX Holding Performance. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of VirnetX Holding. If investors know VirnetX will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about VirnetX Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.61) | Revenue Per Share 0.002 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.50) | Return On Assets (0.23) | Return On Equity (0.35) |
The market value of VirnetX Holding Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VirnetX that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VirnetX Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VirnetX Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VirnetX Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VirnetX Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VirnetX Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VirnetX Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VirnetX Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.