Par Pacific Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.61
| PARR Stock | USD 17.40 0.07 0.40% |
Par |
Par Pacific Target Price Odds to finish below 15.61
The tendency of Par Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.61 or more in 90 days |
| 17.40 | 90 days | 15.61 | about 7.02 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Par Pacific to drop to $ 15.61 or more in 90 days from now is about 7.02 (This Par Pacific Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Par Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Par Pacific Holdings price to stay between $ 15.61 and its current price of $17.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.74 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.66 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Par Pacific will likely underperform. Additionally Par Pacific Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Par Pacific Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Par Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Par Pacific Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Par Pacific Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Par Pacific is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Par Pacific's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Par Pacific Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Par Pacific within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.51 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.70 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Par Pacific Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Par Pacific for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Par Pacific Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Par Pacific Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Par Pacific Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Par Pacific Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Par Pacific Holdings currently holds 1.02 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.11, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Par Pacific Holdings has a current ratio of 0.86, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Par Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 98.0% of Par Pacific shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Ring Energy Announces Addition to Management Team |
Par Pacific Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Par Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Par Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Par Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 279.1 M |
Par Pacific Technical Analysis
Par Pacific's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Par Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Par Pacific Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Par Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Par Pacific Predictive Forecast Models
Par Pacific's time-series forecasting models is one of many Par Pacific's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Par Pacific's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Par Pacific Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Par Pacific for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Par Pacific Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Par Pacific Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Par Pacific Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Par Pacific Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Par Pacific Holdings currently holds 1.02 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.11, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Par Pacific Holdings has a current ratio of 0.86, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Par Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 98.0% of Par Pacific shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Ring Energy Announces Addition to Management Team |
Additional Tools for Par Stock Analysis
When running Par Pacific's price analysis, check to measure Par Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Par Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Par Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Par Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Par Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Par Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.